Ќ Ў®а ⥪бв®ў ⥬㠂’Ћ б ЇҐаҐў®¤®¬ (копия). Всемирная торговая организация
 Скачать 0.92 Mb.
|
Advantages of WTO World Trade Organization (Всемирная торговая организация) helps member states in various ways and this enables them to reap benefits such as: Helps promote peace within nations: Peace is partly an outcome of two of the most fundamental principle of the trading system; helping trade flow smoothly and providing countries with a constructive and fair outlet for dealing with disputes over trade issues. Peace creates international confidence and cooperation that the WTO creates and reinforces. Disputes (споры) are handled constructively: As trade expands in volume, in the numbers of products traded and in the number of countries and company trading, there is a greater chance that disputes will arise. WTO helps resolve these disputes peacefully and constructively. If this could be left to the member states, the dispute may lead to serious conflict, but lot of trade tension is reduced by organizations such as WTO. Rules make life easier for all: WTO system is based on rules rather than power and this makes life easier for all trading nations. WTO reduces some inequalities giving smaller countries more voice, and at the same time freeing the major powers from the complexity of having to negotiate trade agreements with each of the member states. Free trade (свободная торговля) cuts the cost of living: Protectionism is expensive (дорогой), it raises prices, WTO lowers trade barriers through negotiation and applies the principle of non-discrimination. The result is reduced costs of production (because imports used in production are cheaper) and reduced prices of finished goods and services, and ultimately a lower cost of living. It provides more choice of products and qualities: It gives consumer more choice and a broader range of qualities to choose from. Trade raises income (доход): Through WTO trade barriers are lowered and this increases imports and exports thus earning the country foreign exchange thus raising the country's income. Trade stimulates economic growth (экономический рост): With upward trend economic growth, jobs (рабочие места) can be created and this can be enhanced by WTO through careful policy making and powers of freer trade. Basic principles make life more efficient: The basic principles make the system economically more efficient and they cut costs. Many benefits of the trading system are as a result of essential principle at the heart of the WTO system and they make life simpler for the enterprises directly involved in international trade and for the producers of goods/services. Such principles include; non-discrimination, transparency, increased certainty about trading conditions etc. together they make trading simpler, cutting company costs and increasing confidence in the future and this in turn means more job opportunities and better goods and services for consumers. Governments are shielded from lobbying: WTO system shields the government from narrow interest. Government is better placed to defend themselves against lobbying from narrow interest groups by focusing on trade-offs that are made in the interests of everyone in the economy. The system encourages good governance (управление): The WTO system encourages good government. The WTO rules discourage a range of unwise policies and the commitment made to liberalize a sector of trade becomes difficult to reverse. These rules reduce opportunities for corruption. U.S. Companies Worry About Effect of Russia Joining WTO Moscow — After two decades of negotiations, Russia will finally join the World Trade Organization on Wednesday. The lower trade barriers that come along with membership will open up new opportunities for foreign companies to do business in Russia. Marc Esser/Caterpillar Caterpillar, based in Illinois, sold $2 billion worth of machines to Russia over the last five years. But American companies are guaranteed no such advantages — and may even face higher Russian tariffs than their competitors from other countries. Because of broader policy concerns about the Kremlin’s crackdown on dissidents and its support for rogue governments, Congress has balked at the Obama administration’s request to grant Russia permanent normal trade relation status. That status is important since the W.T.O. requires that any country that seeks to benefit from it must apply the same trade rules to all member countries. Major American exporters to Russia, like Caterpillar, Deere and General Electric, are worried about the potential impact on their business from the Congressional inaction. Across all sectors of the economy, Russia will lower import tariffs to 7 percent, from about 15 percent today, for the 155 countries in the trade organization. Although Russian officials say they do not have any immediate intention of applying discriminatory tariffs against American companies, they could legally do so at any time. Russia was the last major economy that was not part of the trade group, and joining is expected to be a boon for Russian consumers and businesses. Exporting companies in Europe, Asia and the United States eagerly await open access to a population of 142 million people with growing incomes and an expanding middle class. The World Bank estimates that W.T.O. membership will add three percentage points to Russia’s gross domestic product once the new tariffs are phased in. Russia negotiated for membership for 18 years, beginning when the W.T.O. was called the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. That is longer than any major W.T.O. entrant, including China, for which permanent trade status was also a battle in Congress. Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama all supported Russia’s inclusion, and the country won accession last year, with formal membership coming this week. After Russia joins the W.T.O., most other countries in the world will have recourse to the global trade group’s means for resolving disputes and can demand the lower, favorable tariffs negotiated during Russia’s application process. Whatever the economic implications for American companies, members of Congress have suggested that granting Russia permanent normal trade relations would in effect turn a blind eye to Russia’s support for rogue governments, its defiance of Western efforts to isolate Syria and Iran, and President Vladimir V. Putin’s crackdown on dissent at home. “The Obama administration has not articulated a clear and coherent strategy regarding Russia,” Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah and a member of the Senate Finance Committee, said in June. “Instead, they ask Congress to simply pass permanent normal trade relations and remove Russia from long-standing human rights law, while ignoring Russia’s rampant corruption, theft of U.S. intellectual property, poor human rights record and adversarial foreign policies.” Just last week, Russian authorities sentenced members of the punk band Pussy Riot to two years in prison for holding an anti-Putin concert, and then arrested the chess champion Garry Kasparov, who was protesting outside the court, and accused him of biting a policeman. To grant the favored trade status, Congress must repeal a cold-war-era trade sanction intended to compel the Soviet Union to allow Jewish and other religious minorities to freely emigrate. Russia has not imposed restrictions on such emigration for about 20 years. Some members of Congress from both parties, but not the Obama administration, support replacing that restriction with a human rights law addressing current issues of government corruption and police abuse. The proposed law — named after the whistle-blowing lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who died in pretrial detention in 2009 — would block visas and freeze assets of Russians implicated in human rights abuses. Mr. Hatch noted that exports to Russia account for only about half of 1 percent of all American exports. American businesses are also protected by a 1992 bilateral trade treaty that guarantees equal treatment with companies from other nations, though this lacks the enforcement mechanism of the W.T.O. For companies with major Russian exports, an extended Congressional delay could be dire. Earlier this year, several chief executives testified to Congress that their market share in Russia and jobs at factories, research and development centers and head offices in the United States could suffer. “The United States will be in violation of W.T.O. rules that require every member to grant every other member permanent normal trade relations,” said Andrew Somers, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia. “To many congressmen, it looks like they would be rewarding Russia for bad behavior. But in fact, they will not be rewarding Russia at all, because Russia is already in the W.T.O.” For some goods, the new tariffs take effect immediately. In other sectors, like automotive manufacturing, the tariffs are phased in over up to seven years. Yekaterina Y. Mayorova, deputy director of trade negotiations at the Russian ministry of economy, said in an interview that the initial drop in tariffs to take effect later this week would not discriminate against American companies. “We are not preparing any special tariffs for the United States, though legally we are not obliged to offer the same conditions,” she said. But several large companies are at risk. G.E. competes with Siemens of Germany to sell medical imaging devices, and the market for Caterpillar’s big bulldozers is crowded with European and Asian manufacturers, all with sharp elbows. Russia, with its heavy dependence on mining and energy industries, is one of the top 10 export markets for Caterpillar, and the company sold $2 billion worth of machines there over the last five years. After Russia joins the W.T.O. and without permanent normal trade relations, “American companies like Caterpillar will be at a disadvantage compared to Chinese, Korean, Japanese and European competitors,” said Jim Dugan, a Caterpillar spokesman. Losing sales in Russia could affect hiring decisions at United States factories, where Caterpillar employs 55,000 people. The company’s gigantic mining trucks illustrate the risks to American exporters. Tariffs on the vehicles will decrease to 5 percent, from 15 percent, under W.T.O. rules. Depending on their size, these trucks costs $1 million to $7 million, meaning the Russian government could, without risking recourse under the W.T.O., ask Caterpillar to pay $100,000 to $700,000 more in tariffs than its principal Japanese competitor, Komatsu, for each American-made truck sold in Russia. Caterpillar is also facing mounting competition from a Chinese maker of big bulldozers, Shantui, and an upstart German engineering group, Liebherr, that makes construction cranes but is now competing with Caterpillar for pipe-laying equipment for the petroleum industry. “This will really help them,” Bill Pigman, an American dealer of heavy equipment in Moscow, said in an interview. “Why do you have to play brinksmanship? Congress is threatening Cat’s toehold in Russia.” Life after the WTO Russia looks primed to reap enormous gains when it becomes a full-fledged member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) this year, a new World Bank report said. Russian households incomes will spiral up in the near future, while average Russian workers will see their wages skyrocket, said the report, which was published on Tuesday. But some analysts said the report misses the mark and will send the wrong signal to a Kremlin already saddled with worries over a stretched budget. This is because investors are paying close attention to Russia’s economic outlook as an indication of whether a new six-year presidential term for President-elect Vladimir Putin would bring the much-needed improvements to the country’s poor investment climate, analysts said. According to the World Bank baseline scenario based on an oil price of $98 per barrel, Russia’s gross domestic product will grow a mere 3.5 percent in 2012, and will slightly climb to 3.9 percent in 2013. With oil prices at $125 a barrel, Russia’s GDP growth could reach four percent in 2012 and 4.2 percent in 2013. However, the bank believes that Russia’s WTO accession will drastically improve the country’s economic fortune. Russia should see its GDP expanding by about 3.3 percent, or about $49 billion per year, as a member of the world trade block, World Bank economists said in their quarterly analysis of the Russian economy. In the long term, when the positive impact on the investment climate is incorporated, the economists said the gains should increase to about 11 percent or about $162 billion per year. The estimated gains are not one-off, but will repeat each year as long as the country sticks to an open economy trade regime, the economists said. WTO membership will have a substantial impact on Russian households too. The average Russian household would experience a gain of 7.2 percent of its income each year, while more than 99 percent of Russian households will experience gains within the range of two to 25 percent of their incomes each year. Skilled and unskilled workers’ wages are supposed to increase by about five and four percent respectively in the medium term, and by about 17 and 13 percent in the long run. Skilled labor and urban households should gain relatively more than average due to the increase in foreign direct investment in the skill intensive business services sectors. However, rich households would gain less than the average household, since increased competition from foreign direct investment results in capital gaining less than labor. “The poorest households are estimated to gain at about the level of the average household, thereby reducing poverty,” said the report’s authors. There will be positive impacts at the regional level too. “All regions should gain substantially, but the regions that will gain the most are those that are most successful at attracting foreign direct investment, which depends on both location advantages and creating a good investment climate,” the economists wrote in their report. The regions likely to gain the most are the Northwest, St. Petersburg and the Far East. In a focused study of the telecommunications sector, the authors estimated that skilled workers’ wages in the telecom sector would increase substantially from foreign direct investment (FDI). “Multinational firms located in Russia employ mostly Russians and will increase the demand and wages for Russians with the skills needed in their companies,” said the authors. The World Bank sees about 72 percent of the estimated gains coming from improved quality and lower prices of services that lead to productivity increases and the increased competitiveness of Russian firms. Another 18 percent will come from tariff reductions that will allow purchasing intermediate inputs and final goods at lower prices. Improved market access for Russian exporters accounts for the remaining ten percent. The only fly in the ointment is the increased competition from imports, which may lead to the displacement of some workers. “It is better for the government to provide assistance to workers to relocate while avoiding supporting the industries,” said the authors. “It is important to focus on the displaced workers, not the sectors.” However, Russian analysts said that the World Bank’s forecasts are overly optimistic, even when juxtaposed with similar estimates from the country’s Ministry of Economic Development. The growth in real disposable income should be four percent in 2012, and 4.4 percent in 2013 when the benefits of WTO accession are taken into account, according to the ministry. “A seven percent growth in household income is simply overoptimistic,” said Sergei Karyhalin, an analyst on macroeconomics and strategy at TCB Capital. Ariel Cherny, a researcher of Allianz ROSNO Asset Management, said Russia is unlikely to reap economic benefits from its WTO accession without undergoing radical economic reforms. “The overall optimism surrounding WTO accession wanes when one considers that systemic weaknesses persist,” Cherny said. “There’s need to restore investor confidence, particularly through fighting corruption, strengthening governance and protecting private property rights.” Changing the trade rules Russia’s entry to the WTO could give Putin’s cautious reform program the boost it needs In years to come, August 2012 may be seen as a turning point when Russian authorities triggered a new political era of instability by cracking down on the country’s nascent opposition. Putin wants Russia to move up 100 places Alternatively, it could be remembered as the month when the country finally joined the World Trade Organization after an 18-year wait, triggering the kind of economic boost needed for President Vladimir Putin to revive his slipping support. Whether the latter scenario will come to pass has become a hotly debated topic among economists and Russia-watchers in the wake of the country’s historic official entry to the global trade body last week. On one side are those who point to the experience of other countries, including nine other former Soviet states, which saw economic growth and marked improvements in their investment climates after joining the WTO. On the other are those who maintain that, while the WTO is a useful tool, the initiative to use it will ultimately have to come from the Russian authorities. One thing analysts do agree about is that any effects from joining the WTO will be gradual, since Russia has chosen to take the slow path to lowering trade tariffs in order to give domestic companies time to adapt to the changes. “WTO entry is a slow-release stimulant – there is no noticeable effect when it is plugged in, but as enough of the stimulant builds up over time, the effects start to be noticed and the pressure to adapt and perform will also increase,” Chris Weafer, chief equities strategist at Troika Dialog investment bank, told The Moscow News by e-mail. |