черный лебедь. Черный лебедь. Непредсказуемости
Скачать 2.55 Mb.
|
Sperber, Dan, 1996a, La contagion des idees. Paris: Odile Jacob. –, 1996b, Explaining Culture: A Naturalistic Approach. Oxford: Blackwell. – 1997, “Intuitive and Reflective Beliefs.” Mind and Language 12(1): 67–83. –, 2001, “An Evolutionary Perspective on Testimony and Argumentation.” Philosophical Topics 29: 401–413. Sperber, Dan, and Deirdre Wilson, 1995, Relevance: Communication and Cognition, 2nd ed. Oxford: Blackwell. –, 2004a, “Relevance Theory.” In L. R. Horn, and G. Ward, eds., The Handbook of Pragmatics. Oxford: Blackwell. –, 2004b, “The Cognitive Foundations of Cultural Stability and Diversity.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 8(1): 40–44. Н. Талеб. «Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости (сборник)» 358 Squire, Larry, and Eric R. Kandel, 2000, Memory: From Mind to Molecules. New York: Owl Books. Stanley, H. E., L. A. N. Amaral, P. Gopikrishnan, and V. Plerou, 2000, “Scale Invariance and Universality of Economic Fluctuations.” Physica A 283: 31–41. Stanley, T. J., 2000, The Millionaire Mind. Kansas City: Andrews McMeel Publishing. Stanley, T. J., and W. D. Danko, 1996, The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America’s Wealthy. Atlanta, Ga.: Longstreet Press. Stanovich, K., and R. West, 2000, “Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23: 645–665. Stanovich, К. E., 1986, “Matthew Effects in Reading: Some Consequences of Individual Differences in the acquisition of literacy.” Reading Research Quarterly 21: 360–407. Stein, D. L., ed., 1989, Lectures in the Sciences of Complexity. Reading, Mass.: Addison- Wesley. Sterelny, Kim, 2001, Dawkins vs. Gould: Survival of the Fittest. Cambridge, England: Totem Books. Stewart, Ian, 1989, Does God Play Dice? The New Mathematics of Chaos. London: Penguin Books. – 5 1993, “Chaos.” In Leo Howe and Alan Wain, eds., 1993. Stigler, Stephen М., 1986, The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University. –, 2002, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Stiglitz, Joseph, 1994, Whither Socialism. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. Strawson, Galen, 1994, Mental Reality. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. –, 2004, “Against Narrativity.” Ratio 17: 428–452. Strogatz, S. H., 1994, Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, with Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley. Strogatz, Steven H., 2001, “Exploring Complex Networks.” Nature 410: 268-276. –, 2003, Sync: How Order Emerges from Chaos in the Universe, Nature, and Daily Life. New York: Hyperion. Suantak, L., F. Bolger, and W. R. Ferrell, 1996, “The Hard-easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 67: 201–221. Suddendorf, Thomas, 2006, “Enhanced: Foresight and Evolution of the Human Mind.” Science 312(5776): 1006–1007. Sullivan, R., A. Timmermann, and H. White, 1999, “Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap.” Journal of Finance 54:1647–1692. Sunstein, Cass R., 2002, Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Surowiecki, James, 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday. Sushil, Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, “ATheory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.” Journal of Political Economy 100(5): 992-1026. Sutton, J., 1997, “Gibrat’s Legacy.” Journal of Economic Literature 35: 40-59. Swanson, D. R., 1986a, “Fish Oil, Raynaud’s Syndrome and Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 30(1): 7-18. –, 1986b, “Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Library Quarterly 56: 103-118. Н. Талеб. «Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости (сборник)» 359 –, 1987, “Two Medical Literatures That Are Logically but Not Bibliographically Connected.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science 38: 228–233. Swets, J. A., R. M. Dawes, and J. Monahan, 2000a, “Better Decisions Through Science.” Scientific American (October): 82–87. –, 2000b, “Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions.” Psychogical Science in the Public Interest 1:1-26. Szenberg, Michael, ed., 1992, Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Tabor, М., 1989, Chaos and Integrability in Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction. New York: Wiley. Taine, Hippolyte Adolphe, 1868,1905. Les philosophes classiques duXIXe siecle en France, дёте ed. Paris: Hachette. Taleb, N. N., 1997, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options. New York: Wiley. –, 2004a, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. New York: Random House. –, 2004b, “These Extreme Exceptions of Commodity Derivatives.” In Helyette Geman, Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. New York: Wiley. –, 2004c, “Bleed or Blowup: What Does Empirical Psychology Tell Us About the Preference for Negative Skewness?” Journal of Behavioral Finance 5(1): 2–7. –, 2004d, “The Black Swan: Why Don’t We Learn That We Don’t Learn?” Paper presented at the United States Department of Defense Highland Forum, Summer 2004. –, 2004e, “Roots of Unfairness.” Literary Research/Recherche Litteraire 21(41–42): 241– 254. –, 2004f, “On Skewness in Investment Choices.” Greenwich Roundtable Quarterly 2. –, 2005, “Fat Tails, Asymmetric Knowledge, and Decision Making: Essay in Honor of Benoit Mandelbrot’s 80th Birthday.” Technical paper series, Wilmott (March): 56–59. –, 2006a, “Homo Ludens and Homo Economicus.” Foreword to Aaron Brown’s The Poker Face of Wall Street. New York: Wiley. –, 2006b, “On Forecasting.” In John Brockman, ed., In What We Believe But Cannot Prove: Today’s Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty. New York: Harper Perennial. –, 2007, “Scale Invariance in Practice: Some Patches and Workable Fixes.” Preprint. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, and Avital Pilpel, 2004, “I problemi epistemologici del risk management.” In Daniele Pace, a cura di, Economia del rischio: Antologia di scritti su rischio e decisione economica. Milano: Giuffre. Tashman, Leonard J., 2000, “Out of Sample Tests of Forecasting Accuracy: An Analysis and Review.” International Journal of Forecasting 16(4): 437–450. Teigen, К. H., 1974, “Overestimation of Subjective Probabilities.” Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 15: 56–62. Terracciano, A., et al., 2005, “National Character Does Not Reflect Mean Personality Traits.” Science 310: 96. Tetlock, Philip E., 1999, “Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?” American Journal of Political Science 43(2): 335–366. –, 2005, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Thaler, Richard, 1985, “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice.” Marketing Science 4(3): 199–214. Thom, Rene, 1980, Paraboles et catastrophes. Paris: Champs Flammarion. Н. Талеб. «Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости (сборник)» 360 –, 1993, Predire n’estpas expliquer. Paris: Champs Flammarion. Thorley, 1999, “Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume.” Working Paper, Santa Clara University. Tilly, Charles, 2006, Why? What Happens When People Give Reasons and Why. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Tinbergen, N., 1963, “On Aims and Methods in Ethology.” Zeitschriftfur Tierpsychologie 20: 410–433. –, 1968, “On War and Peace in Animals and Man: An Ethologist’s Approach to the Biology of Aggression.” Science 160:1411–1418. Tobin, James, 1958, “Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk.” Review of Economic Studies 67: 65–86. Triantis, Alexander J., and James E. Hodder, 1990, “Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option.” Journal of Finance 45(2): 549–564. Trivers, Robert, 2002, Natural Selection and Social Theory: Selected Papers of Robert Trivers. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Turner, Mark, 1996, The Literary Mind. New York: Oxford University Press. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1971, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” Psychology Bulletin 76(2): 105–110. –, 1973, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.” Cognitive Psychology 5: 207–232. –, 1974, “Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185:1124–1131. –, 1982, “Evidential Impact of Base-Rates.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. –, 1983, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review 90: 293–315. –, 1992, “Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5: 297–323. Tversky, A., and D. J. Koehler, 1994, “Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability.” Psychological Review 101: 547–567. Tyszka, Т., and P. Zielonka, 2002, “Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters.” Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 3(3): 152–160. Uglow, Jenny, 2003, The Lunar Men: Five Friends Whose Curiosity Changed the World. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux. Vale, Nilton Bezerra do, Jose Delfino, and Lucio Flavio Bezerra do Vale, 2005, “Serendipity in Medicine and Anesthesiology.” Revista Brasileira de Anestesiologia 55(2): 224–249. van Tongeren, Paul, 2002, “Nietzsche’s Greek Measure.” Journal of Nietzsche Studies 24: 5. Vandenbroucke, J. P., 1996, “Evidence-Based Medicine and ‘Medicine d’Observation’, ” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 49 (12): 1335–1338. Varela, Francisco J., 1988, Invitation aux sciences cognitives. Paris: Champs Flammarion. Varian, Hal R., 1989, “Differences of Opinion in Financial Markets.” In Courtenay C. Stone, ed., Financial Risk: Theory, Evidence and Implications: Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Boston: Kitiwer Academic Publishers. VeHEL, Jacques Levy, and Christian Walter, 2002, Les marches fractals: Ffficience, ruptures, et tendances sur les marches financiers. Paris: PUF. Veyne, Paul, 1971, Comment on ecrit Vhistoire. Paris: Editions du Seuil. –, 2005, L’Empire greco-romain. Paris: Editions du Seuil. Vogelstein, Bert, David Lane, and Arnold J. Levine, 2000, “Surfing the P53 Network.” Nature 408: 307–310. Н. Талеб. «Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости (сборник)» 361 Voit, Johannes, 2001, The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets. Heidelberg: Springer. von Mises, R., 1928, Wahrscheinlichkeit, Statistik und Wahrheit. Berlin: Springer. Translated and reprinted as Probability, Statistics, and Truth. New York: Dover, 1957. von Plato, Jan, 1994, Creating Modern Probability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. von Winterfeldt, D., and W. Edwards, 1986, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Wagenaar, Willern, and Gideon B. Keren, 1985, “Calibration of Probability Assessments by Professional Blackjack Dealers, Statistical Experts, and Lay People.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 36: 406–416. –, 1986, “Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts.” In Erik Hollnagel, Giuseppe Mancini, and David D. Woods, Intelligent Design Support in Process Environments. Berlin: Springer. Waller, John, 2002, Fabulous Science: Fact and Fiction in the History of Scientific Discovery. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Wallerstein, Immanuel, 1999, “Braudel and Interscience: A Preacher to Empty Pews?” Paper presented at the 5th Journees Braudeliennes, Binghamton University, Binghamton, N.Y. Wallsten, T. S., D. V. Budescu, I. Erev, and A. Diederich, 1997, “Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10: 243–268. Wason, P. C, i960, “On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task.” Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 12: 129–140. Watts, D. J., 2003, Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age. New York: W. W. Norton and Company. Watts, D. J., and S. H. Strogatz, 1998, “Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-world’ Networks.” Nature 393: 440–442. Watts, Duncan, 2002, “A Simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99(9): 5766–5771. Wegner, Daniel М., 2002, The Illusion of Conscious Will. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. Weinberg, Steven, 2001, “Facing Up: Science and Its Cultural Adversaries.” Working Paper, Harvard University. Weintraub, Roy E., 2002, How Economics Became a Mathematical Science, Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press. Wells, G. L., and Harvey, J. H., 1977, “Do People Use Consensus Information in Making Causal Attributions?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35: 279–293. Weron, R., 2001, “Levy-Stable Distributions Revisited: Tail Index > 2 Does Not Exclude the Levy-Stable Regime.” International Journal of Modern Physics 12(2): 209–223. Wheatcroft, Andrew, 2003, Infidels: A History of Conflict Between Christendom and Islam. New York: Random House. White, John, 1982, Rejection. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley. Whitehead, Alfred North, 1925, Science and the Modern World. New York: The Free Press. Williams, Mark A., Simon A. Moss, John L. Bradshaw, and Nicole J. Rinehart, 2002, “Brief Report: Random Number Generation in Autism.” Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders 32(1): 43–47. Williams, Robert J., and Dennis Connolly, 2006, “Does Learning About the Mathematics of Gambling Change Gambling Behavior?” Psychology of Addictive Behaviors 20(1): 62–68. Willinger, W., D. Alderson, J. C. Doyle, and L. Li, 2004, “A Pragmatic Approach to Dealing with High Variability Measurements.” Proceedings of the ACM SIGCOMM Internet Measurement Conference, Taormina, Sicily, October 25–27, 2004. Wilson, Edward O., 2000, Sociobiology: The New Synthesis. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Н. Талеб. «Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости (сборник)» 362 –, 2002, The Future of Life. New York: Knopf. Wilson, T. D., J. Meyers, and D. Gilbert, 2001, “Lessons from the Past: Do People Learn from Experience That Emotional Reactions Are Short Lived?” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 29:1421–1432. Wilson, T. D., D. T. Gilbert, and D. B. Centerbar, 2003, “Making Sense: The Causes of Emotional Evanescence.” In I. Brocas and J. Carillo, eds., 2003. Wilson, T. D., D. B. Centerbar, D. A. Kermer, and D. T. Gilbert, 2005, “The Pleasures of Uncertainty: Prolonging Positive Moods in Ways People Do Not Anticipate.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88(1): 5-21. Wilson, Timothy D., 2002, Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University. Winston, Robert, 2002, Human Instinct: How Our Primeval Impulses Shape Our Lives. London: Bantam Press. Wolford, George, Michael B. Miller, and Michael Gazzaniga, 2000, “The Left Hemisphere’s Role in Hypothesis Formation.” Journal of Neuroscience 20:1–4. Wood, Michael, 2003, The Road to Delphi. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux. Wrangham, R., 1999, “Is Military Incompetence Adaptive?” Evolution and Human Behavior 20: 3-12. Yates, J. E, 1990, Judgment and Decision Making. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. Yates, J. E, J. Lee, andH. Shinotsuka, 1996, “Beliefs About Overconfidence, Including Its Cross-National Variation.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65:138–147. Yates, J. F., J.-W. Lee, H. Shinotsuka, and W. R. Sieck, 1998, “Oppositional Deliberation: Toward Explaining Overconfidence and Its Cross-cultural Variations.” Paper presented at the meeting of the Psychonomics Society, Dallas, Tex. Yule, G., 1925, “A Mathematical Theory of Evolution, Based on the Conclusions of Dr. J. C. Willis, F. R. S.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series В 213: 21–87. Yule, G. U., 1944, Statistical Study of Literary Vocabulary. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Zacks, R. Т., L. Hasher, and H. Sanft, 1982, “Automatic Encoding of Event Frequency: Further Findings.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 8:106– 116. Zajdenweber, Daniel, 2000, L’economiedes extremes. Paris: Flammarion. Zajonc, R. B., 1980, “Feeling and Thinking: Preferences Need No Inferences.” American Psychologist 35:151–175. –, 1984, “On the Primacy of Affect.” American Psychologist 39: 117–123. Zeki, Semir, 1999, Inner Vision. London: Oxford University Press. Zimmer, A. C., 1983, “Verbal vs. Numerical Processing by Subjective Probabilities.” In R. W. Scholz, ed., Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Zipf, George Kingsley, 1932, Selective Studies and the Principle of Relative Frequency in Language. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. –, 1949, Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort. Cambridge, Mass.: Addison- Wesley. Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001, “Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers.” Working Paper, Stanford University. Zuckerman, H., 1977, Scientific Elite. New York: The Free Press. –, 1998, “Accumulation of Advantage and Disadvantage: The Theory and Its Intellectual Biography.” In C. Mongardini and S. Tabboni, eds., Robert K. Merton and Contemporary Sociology. New York: Transaction Publishers. Zweig, Stefan, i960, Montaigne. Paris: Press Universitaires de France. |