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  • Unit Fourteen Commodity Exchange Active Vocabulary

  • The Clouds Clear over Poor-Country Debt

  • Unit Sixteen Investment Risk: the New Dimension of Policy

  • Investment Risk: the New Dimension of Policy

  • Лекции по английскому языку для изучающих банковское и финансовое дело. Лекции по английскому языку для изучающих банковское и финансов. Составитель Н. А. Самуэльян


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    In a floating exchange system the quoted rates do not
    reflect economic values.

    (fixed, varied, unstable)

    (are not related to, do not influence, do not refer to)

    3. A forward exchange contract may be with an option to
    deliver within an agreed period.

    (condition, choice, requirement)

    4. A forward exchange con tract can only be entered into when

    there is a firm commercial contractual commitment ex­pressed and payable in a foreign currency, (cancelled, endorsed, signed)

    (strong, fixed, rigid)

    (promise, desire, pressure)

    5. The actual amount of sterling to be paid will be depen­dent upon the rate ruling for Deutsche-marks against ster­ling on that day. (present, real, true) (fixed, obligatory, confirmed)

    6. The amount to be paid ottt is expressed in Deutsche-
    marks and the bank will provide him with the forward

    cover. \

    \

    (sum, debt, rate) x

    (added, stated, multiplied)

    (deal with, acquaint with, supply with)

    7. In the forward market there must be some'documentary
    evidence that all foreign currency is to be paid or received.

    (letter, signature, proof)

    8. There are heavy penalties for anyone who tries to specu­
    late.

    (punishment, consequences, condemnation) (do business, make bets, play the market)

    II

    Choose the right miswer:

    1. Sales of weak currencies through the exchange markets
    on a large scale:

    1. help stabilize the economy of the countries concerned,

    2. cause a dramatic fall in their/ates of exchange.

    2. Under the forward exchange contract the exchange rate:

    1. is agreed upon at the time of contract,

    2. is fixed at its maturity.

    3. The option period of a forward exchange contract:

    1. creates the facility to deal or not at the price any time
      during the agreed period,

    2. concerns only the time of the delivery for the exchange
      of currencies.

    4. In the forward exchange contract the amount of currency
    to be paid out:

    1. does not depend upon the rate of exchange ruling on
      the day of signing the contract,

    2. depends upon the rate of exchange ruling on the day of
      signing the contract.


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    119

    5. As forward exchange cover must be in the currency of the
    commercial paper, the customer:

    1. is not allowed to purchase a stronger currency and
      convert it at a profit,

    2. is not forbidden to purchase a stronger currency and
      convert it at a profit.

    6. To obtain the forward cover from the bank the customer:

    1. has to produce to this bank documentary evidence that
      he is importing these goods,

    2. need not prove that he has a firm commercial contract.

    7. There are very heavy penalties for anyone:

    1. who deals in the forward market,

    2. who buys a foreign currency in the forward market
      without firm contractual commitment.

    Ill

    Say what is true and what is false. Correct the false sen­tences:

    1.Accumulated pressure upon a currency at the exchange

    markets accelerates its devaluation.

    1. In a floating exchange system the rales of exchange re­
      flect economic values.

    2. It does not mailer how much the rale of exchange
      varies belween Ihe lime of entering the forward ex­
      change contract and its maturity.

    3. A stock exchange option concerns among olhers the
      liming of Ihe delivery for the exchange of currencies.

    4. The requirement concerning a firm commercial con­
      tractual commitment does not exclude Ihe possibility of
      incorporaling an exchange or gold clause into a forward
      exchange contract.

    6. Under the forward exchange contract an exporter
    may sell to his bank Ihe currency in question delivery
    within the agreed period of lime.

    IV \

    Answer the following questions:

    1. Whal does Ihe sale of weak currencies for a slrong cur-

    rency at the exchange market lead to?

    1. Whal was the standing of the sterling at the exchange
      markets in the early seventies?

    2. What does the speculator at exchange markets lake ad-
      van lage of?

    3. How can a businessman protect himself against losses re­
      sulting from rate fluclualions?

    5. Whal is the essence of a forward exchange agreement?
    H. In what does a slock exchange oplion differ from Ihe op-
    lion of a forward exchange contract?

    1. What requirements arc forward exchange contracts sub­
      ject to?

    2. What types of transaction may not be entered under the
      forward exchange cover?

    3. Whal does it rneanlhal forward exchange cover must be
      in Ihe currency of the commercial paper?

    10. Whal document must an importer present to its bank if
    he wants lo buy a currency forward?

    1. Whal arrangemcnls may an exporler make with his bank
      when he enlers a forward exchange contract?

    2. How are dealings in the forward markcl protected against
      speculations?


    120

    121


    Unit Thirteen Stock Exchange


    Active Vocabulary:

    actuary

    aggregate average base year

    base-weighted index by word of mouth capitalization
    channel (v) commodity

    floor
    index jobber

    marketability
    market value pension price index ratio
    quote (v) volume

    актуарий, служащий страховой, компании, занимающийся рас­четом страховых рисков совокупный средний базовый год базовый средний индекс

    - устно

    капитализация дохода, структу­рирование капитала направлять

    предмет потребления, товар, продукт

    1. минимальный уровень цен

    2. производственная площадь
      индекс, показатель

    джоббер, спекулянт на фондовой бирже, профессиональный бир­жевик

    товарность, реализуемость, при­годность

    • рыночная стоимость

    • пенсия
      индекс цен

    • соотношение, коэффициент, про­
      цент, доля

    назначать цену, котировать

    - объем

    122

    Stock exchange is a market in which securities are bought and sold. There are stock exchanges in most capital cities, as well as in the largest provincial cities in many countries, and over twenty in Britain. The principal stock exchange in Britain is known as the Stock Exchange, and is located in Throgmorton Street in the City of London; the New York Stock Exchange is located in and is known as Wall Street. Continental European exchanges are often referred to as Bourses. The economic importance of stock exchanges is that they facilitate saving and investment, first, through making it possible for investors to dispose of securities quickly if they wish to do so and, secondly, in channelling savings into productive investments. Ready marketability requires that new issues should be made or backed by reputable borrowers or institutions, that information should be avail­able on existing securities, and that should be both a legal framework and market rules to prevent fraud and sharp practice. Stock exchanges have their own rules and con­ventions, but their functioning depends also on the exist­ence of company and other law and financial intermediar­ies, such as the issuing houses.

    The British Stock Exchange, founded in 1773, devel­oped from informal exchanges in coffee houses in the City of London. It is managed by a council of memters. There are some 3,500 members, who alone may deal or even enter the floor of the exchange.

    Stock-brokers act as agents for the public and buy from and sell to jobbers. Members are formed into a declining number of companies and there are now only 192 broking firms and ninety-one jobbing firms on the London Ex­change. Business is conducted entirely by word of mouth and although jobbers and brokers keep their own regis­ters and may record details of a "bargain" (as all transac­tions are called) on the official list, they are not obliged to do so. Even today there are no official statistics of the volume of

    123

    transactions, although prices at the exchange are widely available in the press. The market value of the securities quoted on the exchange is about J120 billion, of which rather more than half are foreign securities.

    Index numbers indicating changes in the average prices of shares on the Stock Exchange are called share indices. The indices are constructed by taking a selection of shares and "weighing" the percentage changes in prices together as an indication of aggregate movements in share prices. Roughly speaking, a share index shows percentage changes in the market value of a portfolio compared with its value in the base year of the index. Index numbers are published by several daily papers and weekly journals.

    Using the words in brackets as a guide, explain the mean­ing of the following terms:

    1. securities (income-yielding papers, traded on, stock,
      shares)

    1. government securities (fixed-interest paper)

    1. ordinary shares (rights to assets and dividends, prefer­
      ence shares, paid)

    2. actuary (the calculation of risk and premiums, a person
      trained in, assurance purposes)

    1. equities (a fixed rate of interest, stock and shares, do not

    pay)

    1. share (a unit of ownership, a proportion of distributed
      profits, small denomination)

    2. stock (a unit of ownership, a proportion of distributed
      profits, units of J100 value)

    1. yield or return (outlay, percentage the investor gels on)

    2. blue chip (highly priced, slock, valued for, security)

    II

    Choose the word or phrase in brackets that would best substitute for the word or phrase in bold print in toe follow­ing sentences:

    \. The economic importance of stock exchanges is that they facilitate saving and investment, (prominence, significance, necessity) (humpcr, make dificult, make easy)

    2. Slock exchanges facilitate investment through channel­
    ing savings into productive investments,
    (controlling, directing, handling)

    (profitable, industrious, industrial)

    3. There should he both a legal framework and market rules

    to prevent fraud arid sharp practice. (set of laws, body oflaw, arm of the law) (danger, swindling, haste) (trickery, gesticulation, turmoil)

    4. Business at stock exchanges is conducted entirely by word
    of mouth.

    (strictly, completely, originally) (orally, willingly, usually)/

    5. There are no official statistics of the volume of concluded

    transactions at the London Stock Exchange,, (printed, public, trustworthy) (quantity, quality, size)

    1. Prices at the exchange are widely available in the press,
      (noticeable, obtainable, profitable)

    2. The indices are constructed by taking a selection of shares

    and "weighing" the percentage changes in prices to­gether.

    (choice, range, sample) (comparing, calculating, evaluating)

    N. The percentage changes in prices indicate aggregate move­ment in share prices.


    124

    125

    (guide, predict, denote) (total, complete, expected)

    9. The equities included in the series account for 60 per
    cent of the value of all quoted equities.

    (explain, amount to, include) (exemplified, listed, announced)

    10. The 500 share index consists of equities broken down
    into capital goods, consumer goods etc.

    (measures, defines, includes) (determined as, subdivided, arranged)

    11. There was considerable publicity, when the Financial

    Times Industrial Index passed 500.

    (sufficient, average, great)

    (coverage, understanding, ignorance) л

    (left, exceeded, possessed)

    П1

    Choose the right answer:

    1. The principal stock exchange in the United States of
    America is known as:

    1. the Stock Exchange,

    2. Wall Street.

    2. Ready marketability requires that new issues should be
    made or backed by:

    1. reputable borrowers or institutions,

    2. law and financial intermediaries such as the issuing
      houses.

    3. Jobbers:

    1. act as agents for the public,

    2. deal only with brokers and not with the general pub­
      lic.

    4. Jobbers and brokers:

    1. are obliged to keep records of concluded bargains,

    2. are not obliged to record concluded transactions.

    5. Share indices indicate:

    1. percentage changes in the market value of shares as
      compared with their value in the base year,s of the in­
      dex,

    2. percentage changes in share prices within the last three

    years.

    6. Price indices and averages published in the Financial
    Times Actuaries Share Indices/fireЪased on:

    1. fixed-interest stocks,

    2. equities and fixed interest stocks.

    7. Financial Times Actuaries Share Indices provide for fixed-

    interest securities:

    1. prices and yields,

    2. price indices, average earning and dividend yields.

    8. The financial group of equities is broken down into:

    1. capital goods, consumer goods, industry,

    2. sectors, e.g. banks, discount houses etc.

    IV

    Complete the following sentences on the. basis of the infor­mation given in the text:

    1. Stock exchanges facilitate

    2. Through slock exchanges investors can quickly

    3. The functioning of stock exchange depends on

    4. The British Stock Exchange is managed by

    5. Members of the Slock Exchange may

    6. The volume of transactions concluded at the Stock Ex­
      change is

    7. The best known stock and share indices are


    126

    127

    Answer the following questions:

    1. What is stock exchange?

    2. Where is the British Stock Exchange located?

    3. Where is the New York Stock Exchange located?

    4. What is the economic importance of stock exchange?

    5. What are the requirements of ready marketability?

    6. What does Ihe functioning of stock exchanges depend on?

    7. Give a brief characteristic of the British Stock Exchange.

    8. In what way do the duties of brokers differ from these of
      jobbers?

    9. What is the volume of transaction concluded on the Brit­
      ish Stock Exchange yearly?




    1. What do share indices indicate?

    2. How are share indices constructed?

    3. Where can you find index numbers?

    4. What information do the Financial Times Slock Indices
      include?



    i) securities exchange j) official hours k) floor member 1) market intelligence in) market value

    9. stock exchange list

    10. smash on the exchange

    1 1. stock exchange operations

    1. stock exchange value

    2. financial news

    VII

    Collocation. Combine Ihe words listed below into meaning­ful two or three, word expressions as possible:

    earning

    fund /

    index

    indices

    link

    manager

    market

    number

    percentage

    price

    pension

    portfolio

    share

    stock

    yield

    year

    actuaries

    average

    base

    chain

    change

    capitalization

    commodity

    dividend

    VI

    Vocabulary study. Synonyms. Match the expressions listed in column A willi Иге synonymous ones from column B.

    В

    1. stock exchange

    2. member of the exchange

    3. exchange days

    4. exchange hours

    5. exchange dealings

    6. stock exchange securities

    7. unlisted securities

    8. contract note




    1. exchange trading

    2. slock listed at Ihe ex­
      change

    3. sale contract

    d) unquoted securities
    c) official quotation list

    f) trading days

    g) slump in exchange
    prices

    h) dealings in stocks and shares


    128

    129

    5-1619

    Unit Fourteen Commodity Exchange

    Active Vocabulary:

    auction cereals c.i.f., C.I.F.

    = cost, insurance, freight close (v)

    commodity exchange firm prices grade highest (top) rate

    (price, quotation) leeway lowest (bottom) price

    (rate, quotation) marked primary commodity

    rally

    right to ownership setback subsequent upswing


    • аукцион

    • зерновые

    • цена GIF

    • закрывать

    • товарная биржа

    • твердые цены

    • сорт, качество

    • наивысшая цена

    - дрейф

    • самая низкая цена

    • отмеченный
      основной товар, пре­
      имущественный товар

    1) оживление спроса,

    2) значительное повы­
    шение курса ценной
    бумаги

    право собственности спад, регресс последующий внезапный подъем, скачок

    Commodity Exchange

    Commodity exchange is a market in which commodi­ties are bought and sold. It is not necessary for the com­modities to be physically exchanged; only rights to owner­ship need be. London has important commodity markets arising partly from its industrial and colonial history, and partly from the nature of its foreign trade. The commodity exchanges in London cover a wide variety, such as lea, coffee, wool, rubber, non-ferrous metals and furs. The old practice of auctioning commodities from warehouse in which samples could be inspected beforehand has be­come less important. An efficient system of grading and modern systems of communication have enabled the practice of c.i.f. trading to develop. A buyer can buy a commodity in the country of origin for delivery c.i.f. to a speci­fied port at which he can off-load for direct delivery to his own premises. This melpod saves warehousing costs and auction charges. However, many auctions still take place in London, e.g. tea, wool and furs. The markel nol only enables commodities to be sold spot or for delivery al some specified time and place, but it also includes a market in fu­tures. This latter enables merchants lo avoid the effect of price flucluations by buying for forward delivery at an agreed price, which will not be affected by intervening changes in the spot rate.

    I

    Find pairs ofopposites in the list:
    l.boom a) selback


    1. demand

    2. reached its peak

    3. slump

    4. the least heavily weighed

    5. upswing

    6. turned softer



    1. trend downward

    2. rally

    3. supply

    4. touched its lowest

    5. turned firmer

    6. fall


    130

    131

    1. the most heavily weighed

    2. minor metals




    1. active market

    2. steady prices

    II

    h) rise

    i) dull market

    j) fluctuations in prices

    k) base metals

    Unit Fifteen

    The Clouds Clear over

    Poor-Country Debt


    Find the nouns which can be qualified by these adjectives
    and write one noun to each adjective:
    basic marked

    downward overall

    direct phenomenal

    efficient postwar

    forward primary

    minor staple

    modern subsequent

    III

    Express each of the following in other words:

    1. in spite of short-lived secondary rallies

    2. the different behaviour of the two index calculations

    3. official price support policies for leading farm products

    4. with the basic trend downward

    5. after extended setbacks

    Active Vocabulary:

    aid

    bailiwick

    bunching of maturities

    charge entitlement

    facility(ies)

    fund

    net borrowing

    raise money (v)

    recycling

    resort to (v)

    quadruple (v)

    guota segregate (v)

    —помощь

    • сфера компетенции

    • информация о сроках
      погашения ценных бумаг

    • плата

    • право, документ, дающий
      право

    • льгота, услуга

    • резерв, запас, фонд

    • чистое заимствование

    • занимать деньги

    • рециклировать

    • прибегать к ч.-л.

    • увел>|»1иваться в четыре
      раза

    • квота

    • отделять, выделять,
      изолировать

    i

    The Clouds Clear over Poor-Country Debt

    There seems a good chance that the managing director of the Internalional Monetary Fund will realize his hopes of raising $15 billion or so from surplus countries to lend to deficit ones.

    132

    133

    The Witteveen proposals are:

    1. Half the money should come from the Opec surplus
      countries, and the rest from the industrialized surplus coun­
      tries and the United States.

    2. Commercial interest rates would be paid, perhaps
      higher than the 7% on the now-ended oil facility.

    3. Loans would be for longer than the three-to-five years
      of normal IMF credits and even longer than the three-to-
      seven years of the oil facility.

    4. Loans would be related to the needs of the borrowing
      country rather than the size of its entitlements under IMP
      quotas.

    5. Conditions will be attached — in some cases more se­
      vere than under the IMF's regulations, in some cases less
      so, the key phrase being a country-by-country approach.

    The reasoning behind the new fund starts with the IMF's own need for cash. Its usable, convertible currencies, now* down to about $4 billion, are only enough to meet the ex­pected demand on them in the next six months or so. A boost will come from the round of quota increases now awaiting ratification by the parliaments of member countries, but the failure of IMF resources to keep pace with world trade is one reason developing countries have resorted to commercial bank debt.

    The problem of third-world lending as a whole has been dramatised. The aggregate current account deficit of the non-oil developing countries last year was covered by aid, direct investment, short-term credit from the IMF and long-term borrowings from official bodies like the World Bank. All the net borrowing by developing countries from the Euromarkets went into their reserves.

    However, a) a severe bunching of maturities is building up over the next four years and b) there are some countries whose economic management is so bad that the Federal Re-

    serve Fund is right to be worried. That is why they would like the IMF to have a more powerful voice in international lending. Any country will be given a limit to its international loans and the American commercial banks, will be prevented from lending unwisely to any country by over-competing among themselves.

    The IMF will not be lending only, or even primarily, to developing countries. Most of them, expecially the Asian ones, have adjusted to the rise in oil prices much better than expected (and much better than, for example, Britain and Italy). But the less advanced industrial countries, like Por­tugal and Spain, will also^ need balance-of-payments aid while they get their economies organised.

    The IMF is sticking to the view that the new arrangement will not take it across the dividing line that segregates bal­ance-of-payments adjustment finance from development fi­nance. It is just that the adjustment process is going to take longer than was first supposed when the Opec countries quadrupled oil prices. Although Germany, Japan and Swit­zerland may be persuaded to reduce their surpluses, some of the Middle East oil states cannot do so for several years to come.

    It will continue to be safe for commercial banks to continue to lend to middle income-countries, provided these coun­tries can export.

    The low-income developing countries are too poor to bor­row from the banks and need aid, pure and simple. The new economic team in the American administration grasps the inter-connectedness of recycling, trade protectionism and aid. Its battle will be to spread this message at home, against strongly growing protectionist pressures, as well as abroad.

    Adapted from "The Economist".


    134

    135

    I

    Choose the word or phrase in brackets that would best sub stitute/or the word or phrase in bold print in the following sentences:

    1. There seems a good chance that the managing director of

    the IMF will realize his hopes of raising $15 billion or so. (probability, occasion, event) (fail, carry out, complete) (paying, receiving, accumulating)

    2. Conditions will be attached, the key phrase being a

    country-by-country approach.

    (communicated, imposed, set) (individual, collective, unique)

    3. The failure of IMF resources to keep pace with world
    trade is one reason developing countries have resorted to
    commercial bank debt.

    (promote, develop, meet the requirements of) (turned to, applied for, incurred)

    4. The problem of third-world lending as a whole has been
    over-dramatised.

    (unnoticed, underestimated, exaggerated)

    5. A sever bunching of maturities is building up over the
    next four years.

    (expiring, converging, recycling)

    6. The less advanced industrial countries will also need bal-
    ance-of-payments aid.

    (funds to pay off credits, funds to cover the balance of payments deficit, funds for new investments)

    7. The new arrangement will not take it across the dividing
    line thai segregates balance-of-paymenls adjustment fi­
    nance from development finance.

    (level the difference, abolish the difference, different) ate)

    8. The new economies team in the American administration grasps the inter-connectedness of recycling, trade pro­tectionism and aid. (expresses, associates, understands) (interference, correlation, interdependence)

    II

    Choose the right answer:

    1. The International Monetary Fund was established:

    1. to encourage international cooperation in the monetary
      field and to facilitate a multilateral payments system,

    2. to secure favourable trading terms for the third world
      countries.

    2. Commercial banks are:

    1. government owned banks receiving deposits and mak­
      ing loans,

    2. privately owned banks receiving deposits and making
      loans. ]

    3. If a sum of money is lent for a specified period of time, the
    amount which is repaid by the borrower to the lender
    will be:

    1. greater than the amount which was initially lent,

    2. smaller than the amount which was initially lent.

    4. We define the rale of interest to be:

    1. the difference between what is lenl and what must be
      repaid expressed as a proportion of the amount lenl,

    2. the sum of what is lenl and what must be repaid ex­
      pressed as a proportion of the amount lent.

    5. The balance of payments deficit indicates that:

    a) the counlry's total paymenls obligalions exceed ils

    total receipts, -\^

    b) the counlry's total paymenls obligations are balanced by Hie lolal receipts.


    136

    137

    6. Trade protectionism policy is adopted by some countries in order to:

    1. discriminate against less developed countries,

    2. reduce the overall level of imports.




    1. Mr A. Burns from the Federal Reserve and private bank­
      ers worry because

    2. The Asian developing countries have adjusted to

    3. It will be safer for commercial banks to

    4. The American administration is fully aware of


    Ill

    Say what is true and what is false. Correct the false sen­tences:

    1. There are no prospects for raising $15 billion from sur­
    plus countries to lend to deficit ones.

    1. Normal IMF credits extend over the period of three to
      five years.

    2. New loans will be related to countries entitlements un­
      der IMF quotas.

    3. IMF convertible currencies amounted to $4 billion and
      were not sufficient to meet the expected demand on them
      in the next half-a-year period.

    4. Private bankers are worried if the developing countries
      will be able to repay their debts at maturity.

    5. The less advanced industrial countries have adjusted to
      the rise in oil prices much better than the Asian ones.

    6. The Middle East oil countries will have no difficulties in
      reducing their surpluses.

    7. The low-income developing countries need aid, pure and
      simple.

    IV

    Complete the following sentences on the basis of the infor­mation given in the text:

    1. $15 billion to be raised are to come from

    2. Commercial interest rates would be

    3. Loans would be related to

    4. IMF resources have failed to

    5. The current account deficit of the non-oil developing coun-

    tries was covered by

    Answer the following questions:

    1. What does the managing director of the IMF intend to do?

    2. Where should the money to be raised come from?

    3. What interest rates would be paid on loans?

    4. How long would loans be granted for?

    5. What factors would be considered when granting loans?

    6. When granting loans, what approach would be adopted?

    7. What reasons does the IMF have for raising additional
      funds?

    8. Why does the writer of the article think that the problem
      of third-world lending has been overdramatizcd?

    9. Why will some developing countries find it difficult to re­
      pay their loans at niaturity?

    10. What do the private bankers and the President of the
    Federal Reserve insist on and why?

    1. Which countries will need IMF aid most?

    2. What will the new IMF fund facilitate?

    3. Which countries is it safer to lend money to and why?

    4. What is financial aid strongly linked with?

    VI

    Match the expressions listed in column A with the syn­onymous ones from column B.

    В


    1. external debts

    2. settlement of a debt

    3. sum due



    1. to gran I aid

    2. financial aid

    3. foreign debts


    138

    139

    1. overdue debt

    2. amount of a debt

    3. paying off a debt

    4. to be clear of debts

    5. to contract debts

    6. protectionism




    1. to incur debts

    2. to render assistance

    3. debt standing over

    4. protectionist policy
      h) financial backing

    i) to be out of debts


    1. to adjust to the rise in oil prices

    2. to stick to the view

    3. to grasp the inter-connectedness of

    IX

    Free wriung. Evaluate the. importance of international fi­nancial aid to less developed countries.

    VII

    For each of the following phrases, find the expression in the text which it explains.

    1. countries which have excess in receipts over expenditures

    2. countries which expenditures exceed receipts

    3. a certain sum of money lent on condition that it is returned

    with or without interest

    1. money in the form of coins or paper, ready money

    2. paper money able to be exchanged at a fixed price usually
      into US dollars

    3. an accumulation of money, especially one set aside for a
      certain purpose

    4. money owed to a commercial bank

    5. help, assistance

    6. the system of helping home producers to face foreign com­
      petition by putting tariffs on imported goods

    10. a series of recurring economic phenomena

    VIII

    Demonstrate the meaning of each of the, following expres­sions in sentences of your own:

    1. to raise $15 billion fund

    2. to pay interest rates

    3. to meet the expected demand

    4. to await ratification

    5. to keep pace with world trade

    140

    Unit Sixteen

    Investment Risk:

    the New Dimension of Policy

    recovery

    replacement cost skewed

    structural steel uncertainty

    подъем экономической

    активности

    стоимость замещения

    уклоняющийся

    структурированная сталь

    неопределенность


    Active Vocabulary:

    business cycle capital projects

    commitment —

    discount (v) —

    discount rate —

    dispersion of profits —

    elusive —

    engender (v) —

    failure of confidence —

    growth —

    illusive —
    lag (V)

    low of the cycle —

    mushroom (v) —
    output •—

    price earnings ratio —

    private investment —

    proxy —

    rate of advance —

    rate of inflation —

    rate of return —

    деловой цикл

    вложение капитала, финансовые

    ассигнования

    обязательство

    дисконтировать, учитывать

    учетная ставка

    рассредоточение прибылей

    неуловимый, уклончивый

    N

    порождать, вызывать

    кризис доверия

    рост

    обманчивый, иллюзорный

    отставать, запаздывать

    нижняя фаза цикла

    быстро расти, распространяться

    выпуск продукции, объем

    производства

    отношение рыночной цены акции

    компании к ее чистой прибыли

    частные инвестиции

    лицо, которому доверено

    голосовать от имени акционеров

    ставка по кредитам

    уровень инфляции

    норма прибыли

    142

    Investment Risk: the New Dimension of Policy

    After the sharpest upheaval of the post-war period, the world's industrial countries are struggling, so far with mixed success, to get back on the path of balanced, non-inflationary growth^ The United States has probably been the most successful. After a strong burst of growth in output and employment, many observers foresee a sharp slowing in the rale of advance. The shortfall in the recovery to dale is easy to identify — a lack of private investment; and its cause — a failure of confidence. The uncertainty that plagues the investment commitment process today is embodied in investment calculations in the form of higher risk premiums and prevents a normal package of capital projects from meeting acceptable financial criteria.

    The evidence of debilitalingly high-risk premiums is widespread and disturbing. Even in the United Stales, Iwo years removed from the low of Ihe cycle, planl and equipmenl inveslmenl is falling far shorl of what has typi­cally prevailed at this stage of the business cycle. The shorl-falls appear to be concentrated in longlived investments, particularly those for which profit expeclalions are espe­cially skewed towards the later years of the inveslment: 8, 10, 15 years in the future. Worst hit arc investments where high-risk premiums, acting heavily to discount expected future profit, make Ihe presenl value of Ihose prospective profits minimal.

    143

    Short-lived assets, those with rapid rates of cash re-| turn, seem closer to normal levels of commitment at this stage of the business recovery. But long-lived assets, par­ticularly those related to major construction projects which typically do not repay their investment costs for many years are still lagging badly.

    The bias against long-lived assets is evidenced by new; orders for fabricated structural steel, a measure of the most durable of investment assets. After plummeting sharply] from the autumn into the spring, orders for fabricated struc- i tural steel have recovered only about one quarter of their decline during the pasl two years.

    The rise in investment risk over the pasl decade is also clearly reflected in the American stock markets, where price/earning ratios have fallen to the lowest levels in two decades, largely as a consequence of the increased discount rate imposed on expected earnings growth. One would expect that the market value for existing assets (that is stock prices) would parallel the expected market prices, or present value of contemplated new capital projects. Instead, real investment parallels with a lag the ratio of stock prices to an index of the replacement cost of plant and equipment. The latter is a good proxy of the relation be­tween the prospective market value of new investment and the cost of producing that investment. Translated into rate of return equivalents, the larger the ratio, the greater the prospective rate of return implied.

    While the causes' of this high-degree of investment risk vary from country to country, at root is a profound uncer­tainty of the shape of the future economic environment in which new facilities might be functioning. Although many reasons could be cited, first, and by far the most important is inflation — the fear of an increasing rate in the years ahead, and the instability that would follow it. An inflation ary environment makes calculation of the rate of return on investment more uncertain. Even if overall profits advance

    in line with the rate of inflation, the dispersion of profits among business tends to increase as the rate of inflation climbs. The risk of loss rises or, at best, the attainment of profits becomes more elusive.

    Thus, a much higher rate of discount is applied to inflation
    generated profits than to those accruing from normal busi­
    ness operations. ->

    A second, although somewhat smaller, contributor to higher risk premiums is escalating business regulation. Since the rise of concern over health and environment the regu­latory process has mushroomed. Regulatory changes have directly increased the cost of new facilities in a major way. However, far worse for capital investment decision-mak­ing is the fact that regulations may, indeed will, change in future, but trrar way that is unknowable at present. This, rather than known costs, has engendered uncertainly and hesilalion among businessmen.

    Adapted from "The Economist".

    I

    Using the words in brackets, explain the. meaning of the following terms:

    1. trade cycle (the level of business activity, regular oscilla­tions in, over a period of years)

    2. the low of the trade cycle (low level of business activity, slow growth in output and employment, a period of)

    1. inveslmenl (real capilal goods, expenditure on)

    2. long-lived inveslment (in 8, 10, 15 year time profits are
      expecled, inveslmenl for which)

    3. rale of relurn (nel profit after depreciation, average capi­
      tal invested in a business, as a percentage of)

    4. discount rate (to discount bills, percentage at which, the
      officially announced, a country's central bank, is pre­
      pared)


    144

    145



    II

    Choose the word or phrase in brackets that would best sub -stitutefor the word or phrase in bold print in the following sentences:

    1.After the sharpest upheaval of the post-war period the

    world's industrial countries are struggling to get back on the path of balanced, non-inflationary growth, (disruption, revolution, violent changes) (budgetary, deflationary, financial)

    2. Many observers foresee a sharp slowing in the rate of ad­
    vance.

    (acceleration, development, achievement)

    3. The evidence of debilitatingly high-risk premiums is wide-

    spread and disturbing.

    (discouragingly, proportionally, extremely)

    (well-known, causing concern, important)

    4. The shortfalls appear to be concentrated in long-lived
    investments.

    (commitments, surpluses, deficits) (non-productive, modernization, long-term)

    5. Short-lived assets seem closer to normal levels of com­
    mitment at this stage of business recovery.

    (cash,, liquid, unmarketable) (liability, performance, engagement) (reaction, revival, cycle)

    6. Long-lived assets are still lagging badly.

    (are close to normal levels of commitment, haven't reached the expected levels of commitment, have exceeded the expected levels of commitment)

    1. One would expect that the market value for existing as­
      sets would parallel the expected market prices,
      (long-term assets, stocks and shares, capital assets)
      (contrast, compare, match)

    2. The latter is a good proxy of the relation between the
      prospective market value of new investment and the cosl
      of producing that investment.

    (alternate, synonym, substitution)

    9. The larger the ratio, the greater the prospective rate of
    return.

    (secured profit, surplus profit, profitability)

    10. Even if overall profits advance in line with the rate of
    inflation, the dispersion of profits among business tends
    to increase as the rate of inflation climbs.

    (lag, diminish, increase proportionally) J (accumulation, scattering, dimension)

    11. Since the rise of concern over health and environment,
    the regulatory process has mushroomed.

    (anxiety, care, interest) (legislation, formality, lawfulness)

    III

    Choose the right answer:

    1. The United States has probably been the most successful
    in:

    1. reaching the peak of the business cycle,

    2. recovering from the low point of the business cycle.

    2. The shortfall in the recovery to date is due to:

    1. a lack of private investment,

    2. a lack of incentives. , ^

    3. In the U.S. plant and equipment investments:

    1. are typical for this stage of the business cycle,

    2. arc smaller than could be expected at this stage of the
      business cycle.

    4. High-risk premiums included in investment calculations:

    1. discount prospective profits,

    2. enlarge expected future profits.

    5. The bias against long-lived assets is evidenced by:

    1. a sharp increase in orders for fabricated structural steel,

    2. a slow recovery in orders for fabricated structural steel.

    6. In the American stock market price/earnings ratios:

    1. have fallen to the lowest in two decades,

    2. have remained stable for the last 20 years.


    146

    147

    7. Real investment parallels:

    a) the expected market prices,

    h) the ratio of existing assets to an index of the replace­ment cost.

    8. The larger the relation between the future market value
    of new investment and the cost of its production:

    1. the greater the prospective rate of return,

    2. the more uncertain the prospective rate of return.

    9. A profound uncertainty of the shape of the future eco­
    nomic environment is caused by:

    1. an increasing rate of inflation,

    2. an incalculable rate of return.

    10. Inflation makes calculation of investment profitability:

    1. more difficult,

    2. more uncertain.

    11. Business regulation will change in the future:

    1. in a way that is unknowable at present,

    2. in a way that is predicted by scientists today.

    IV

    Say what is true and what is false. Correct the false sen­tences:

    1. The world's industrial countries are struggling with con­
      siderable success to return to balanced, non-inflalionary
      growth.

    2. Higher-risk premiums included in investment calculations
      prevent average capital projects from satisfying accept­
      able financial criteria.

    3. High-risk premiums discount heavily expected future prof­
      its on present long-lived investments.

    4. Long-lived assets return more quickly to normal levels of
      commitment during the period of business recovery.

    5. The rise of price/earnings ratios in American slock mar­
      kets was a consequence of the increased discount rate
      imposed on expected earnings growth.

    6. The market value of slock prices parallels the present value of contemplated new capital projects.

    Complete the following sentences:

    1. Many observers foresee

    2. The slow recovery is due lo caused in turn by

    3. The uncertainty of investment commitments is visible in




    1. High-risk premiums prevent

    2. The rise in the investment risk is also reflected in

    3. At present in the American stock markets real investment

    parallels

    I.The larger the relation between the fulure market value
    of new investment and the cost of ils construction, the
    greater

    1. The fear of an increasing inflation rate is

    2. Inflation makes calculation of the rate of return on

    10. With the rate of inflation growing, the risk of loss

    II. Business regulations concerning health and environment
    increase directly

    12. It is difficult to foresee

    VI

    Answer Ше following questions:

    1. What was the economic situation of industrial countries in

    the mid sevenlies?

    1. What was the slow rate of recovery due to?

    1. What made a normal package of capital projects Unaccept­
      able financially?

    2. Considering the situation in the United Slates, which types
      of investment fall shortest of the expected level at Ihis
      stage of business recovery? What arc the reasons?

    3. Which types of assets are closer to normal levels of com­
      mitment at that stage of business recovery and why?


    148

    149

    .

    I


    1. What is the best measure of the most durable investment
      assets?

    2. How did the American stock markets react to the rise in
      investment risk?

    3. What is the relationship between the prospective value of
      new investment and the cost of producing it?

    4. What are the most important reasons of this high-degree
      of investment risk?




    1. What are the economic consequences of the climbing in­
      flation rate?

    1. What has caused the escalation of business regulations?

    1. Which is the worst factor for capital investment decision
      making?

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