Системы поддержки принятия решения
Скачать 3.85 Mb.
|
| 14,524 | 160 | 14,35% | 14,78116 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 15,038 | 175 | 16,10% | 15,29493 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 15,552 | 210 | 18,20% | 15,8087 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 16,066 | 207 | 20,27% | 16,32247 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 16,579 | 254 | 22,81% | 16,83624 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 17,093 | 248 | 25,29% | 17,35001 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 17,607 | 235 | 27,64% | 17,86378 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 18,121 | 253 | 30,17% | 18,37755 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 18,634 | 274 | 32,91% | 18,89133 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 19,148 | 267 | 35,58% | 19,4051 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 19,662 | 271 | 38,29% | 19,91887 | 983,393 | 0 | 1,247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,952 | 32,038 | 3,635 | 20,176 | 278 | 41,07% | 20,43264 | 983,856 | 1,995 | 0,836 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,618 | 31,572 | 3,919 | 20,69 | 260 | 43,67% | 20,94641 | 987,224 | 10,383 | 4,276 | 0 | 3,067 | 0 | 1,016 | 20,216 | 4,972 | 21,203 | 292 | 46,59% | 21,46018 | 992,558 | 10,383 | 4,276 | 0 | 3,067 | 0 | 1,016 | 20,216 | 4,972 | 21,717 | 333 | 49,92% | 21,97395 | 997,892 | 10,383 | 4,276 | 0 | 3,067 | 0 | 1,016 | 20,216 | 4,972 | 22,231 | 325 | 53,18% | 22,48772 | 1003,23 | 10,383 | 4,276 | 0 | 3,067 | 0 | 1,016 | 20,216 | 4,972 | 22,745 | 296 | 56,14% | 23,00149 | 1008,79 | 11,58 | 4,676 | 0 | 3,068 | 0,552 | 0 | 18,806 | 5,305 | 23,258 | 297 | 59,11% | 23,51527 | 1014,74 | 11,58 | 4,676 | 0 | 3,068 | 0,552 | 0 | 18,806 | 5,305 | 23,772 | 279 | 61,90% | 24,02904 | 1021,29 | 13,931 | 3,201 | 0 | 5,387 | 0,6 | 0 | 20,15 | 0 | 24,286 | 254 | 64,44% | 24,54281 | 1028,44 | 13,931 | 3,201 | 0 | 5,387 | 0,6 | 0 | 20,15 | 0 | 24,8 | 275 | 67,19% | 25,05658 | 1035,6 | 13,931 | 3,201 | 0 | 5,387 | 0,6 | 0 | 20,15 | 0 | 25,313 | 278 | 69,97% | 25,57035 | 1042,76 | 13,931 | 3,201 | 0 | 5,387 | 0,6 | 0 | 20,15 | 0 | 25,827 | 284 | 72,81% | 26,08412 | 1060,51 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26,341 | 263 | 75,44% | 26,59789 | 1078,42 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26,855 | 246 | 77,90% | 27,11166 | 1096,32 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27,369 | 227 | 80,17% | 27,62543 | 1114,22 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27,882 | 181 | 81,98% | 28,13921 | 1132,13 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28,396 | 221 | 84,19% | 28,65298 | 1150,03 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28,91 | 188 | 86,07% | 29,16675 | 1167,94 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29,424 | 172 | 87,79% | 29,68052 | 1185,84 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29,937 | 157 | 89,36% | 30,19429 | 1203,74 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30,451 | 130 | 90,66% | 30,70806 | 1221,65 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30,965 | 119 | 91,85% | 31,22183 | 1239,55 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31,479 | 115 | 93,00% | 31,7356 | 1257,45 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31,992 | 94 | 93,94% | 32,24937 | 1275,36 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32,506 | 78 | 94,72% | 32,76315 | 1293,26 | 34,847 | 1,817 | 0 | 1,968 | 3,692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33,02 | 82 | 95,54% | 33,27692 | 1312,13 | 35,601 | 2,721 | 0 | 2,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33,534 | 63 | 96,17% | 33,79069 | 1330,42 | 35,601 | 2,721 | 0 | 2,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34,048 | 72 | 96,89% | 34,30446 | 1348,71 | 35,601 | 2,721 | 0 | 2,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34,561 | 63 | 97,52% | 34,81823 | 1367 | 35,601 | 2,721 | 0 | 2,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35,075 | 35 | 97,87% | 35,332 | 1385,29 | 35,601 | 2,721 | 0 | 2,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35,589 | 34 | 98,21% | 35,84577 | 1403,58 | 35,601 | 2,721 | 0 | 2,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36,103 | 43 | 98,64% | 36,35954 | 1422,55 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36,616 | 25 | 98,89% | 36,87331 | 1442,28 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37,13 | 20 | 99,09% | 37,38709 | 1462,01 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37,644 | 16 | 99,25% | 37,90086 | 1481,74 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38,158 | 12 | 99,37% | 38,41463 | 1501,47 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38,672 | 13 | 99,50% | 38,9284 | 1521,2 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39,185 | 9 | 99,59% | 39,44217 | 1540,94 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39,699 | 8 | 99,67% | 39,95594 | 1560,67 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40,213 | 5 | 99,72% | 40,46971 | 1580,4 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40,727 | 5 | 99,77% | 40,98348 | 1600,13 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41,24 | 3 | 99,80% | 41,49725 | 1619,86 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41,754 | 4 | 99,84% | 42,01103 | 1639,59 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42,268 | 3 | 99,87% | 42,5248 | 1659,32 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42,782 | 3 | 99,90% | 43,03857 | 1679,05 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43,295 | 1 | 99,91% | 43,55234 | 1698,78 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43,809 | 1 | 99,92% | 44,06611 | 1718,51 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44,323 | 1 | 99,93% | 44,57988 | 1738,24 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44,837 | 1 | 99,94% | 45,09365 | 1757,97 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45,351 | 2 | 99,96% | 45,60742 | 1777,7 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45,864 | 2 | 99,98% | 46,12119 | 1797,43 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46,378 | 0 | 99,98% | 46,63497 | 1817,16 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46,892 | 1 | 99,99% | 47,14874 | 1836,89 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47,406 | 0 | 99,99% | 47,66251 | 1856,62 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47,919 | 0 | 99,99% | 48,17628 | 1876,35 | 38,403 | 1,141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Выводы: Решение задачи представлено в таблице П18. Отметим, что сами решения, полученные алгоритмическим методом и методом Монте-Карло, совпали. Отклонение расчетной величины ожидаемого дохода, полученное при расчете разными методами, связано с погрешностями задания параметров, поскольку при использовании метода Монте-Карло в качестве значения бралось ближайшее значение середины кармана гистограммы. Таблица П18. Результат решения задачи методом Монте-Карло
|