12 технологических трендов. Кевин КеллиНеизбежно. 12технологическихтрендов, которые
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156. Steven Perlberg, “Social Media Ad Spending to Hit $24 Billion This Year,” Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2015. 157. Rachel McAthy, “Lessons from the Guardian’s Open Newslist Trial,” Journalism.co.uk, July 9, 2012. 158. “OhMyNews,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 30 июля 2015 г. 159. Ed Sussman, “Why Michael Wolff Is Wrong,” Observer, March 20, 2014. 160. Aaron Swartz, “Who Writes Wikipedia?” Raw Thought, September 4, 2006. 161. Впервые Капор сказал это о сети, предшественнице Интернета, в конце 1980-х гг. Из личной беседы. 162. “Wikipedia: WikiProject Countering Systemic Bias,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 31 июля 2015 г. 163. Mesh, по состоянию на 18 августа 2015 г., http:// meshing.it. 164. Stef Conner, “The Lyre Ensemble,” StefConner.com, по состоянию на 31 июля 2015 г. 165. Amy Keyishian and Dawn Chmielewski, “Apple Unveils TV Commercials Featuring Video Shot with iPhone 6,” Re code, June 1, 2015; and V. Renee, “This New Ad for Bentley Was Shot on the iPhone 5S and Edited on an iPad Air Right Inside the Car,” No Film School, May 17, 2014. 166. Claire Cain Miller, “IPad Is an Artist’s Canvas for David Hockney,” Bits Blog, New York Times, January 10, 2014. 167. Officialpsy, “Psy – Gangnam Style M/V,” YouTube, July 15, 2012, по состоянию на 19 августа 2015 г., https:// goo.gl/LoetL. 168. “Stats,” Kickstarter, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г. 169. “Global Crowdfunding Market to Reach $34.4B in 2015, Predicts Massolution’s 2015 CF Industry Report,” Crowdsourcing.org, April 7, 2015. 170. “The Year in Kickstarter 2013,” Kickstarter, January 9, 2014. 171. “Creator Handbook: Funding,” Kickstarter, по состоянию на 31 июля 2015 г. 172. Проект Pebble Time на сегодня собрал больше всех средств на Kickstarter: 20 338 986 долл. “Most Funded,” Kickstarter по состоянию на 18 августа 2015 г. 173. “Stats: Projects and Dollars Success Rate,” Kickstarter, по состоянию на 31июля 2015 г. 174. Marianne Hudson, “Understanding Crowdfunding and Emerging Trends,” Forbes, April 9, 2015. 175. Steve Nicastro, “Regulation A+ Lets Small Businesses Woo More Investors,” NerdWallet Credit Card blog, June 25, 2015. 176. “About Us: Latest Statistics,” Kiva, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г. 177. Simon Cunningham, “Default Rates at Lending Club & Prosper: When Loans Go Bad,” LendingMemo, October 17, 2014; and Davey Alba, “Banks Are Betting Big on a Startup That Bypasses Banks,” Wired, April 8, 2015. 178. Steve Lohr, “The Invention Mob, Brought to You by Quirky,” New York Times, February 14, 2015. 179. Preethi Dumpala, “Netflix Reveals Million-Dollar Contest Winner,” Business Insider, September 21, 2009. 180. “Leaderboard,” Netflix Prize, 2009. 181. Gary Gastelu, “Local Motors 3-D-Printed Car Could Lead an American Manufacturing Revolution,” Fox News, July 3, 2014. 182. Paul A. Eisenstein, “Startup Plans to Begin Selling First 3-D-Printed Cars Next Year,” NBC News, July 8, 2015. 183. Из личной переписки с Ричардом Гучем, техническим директором Международной федерации порнографической индустрии, 15 апреля 2015 г. Это сдержанная оценка. По более смелым оценкам, речь идет скорее о 12 миллионах (Paul Jessop and David Hughes, “In the Matter of: Technological Upgrades to Registration and Recordation Functions,” Docket No. 2013-2, U.S. Copyright Office, 2013, ответ на письменный запрос от 22 марта 2013 г.) 184. “Annual Report,” International Publishers Association, Geneva, 2014, http://goo.gl/UNfZLP. 185. “Most Popular TV Series/Feature Films Released in 2014 (Titles by Country),” IMDb, 2015, по состоянию на 5 августа 2015 г. 186. Вывод на основе следующих материалов: “About (Posts Today),” Tumblr, по состоянию на 5 августа 2015 г.; “A Live Look at Activity Across WordPress.com,” WordPress, по состоянию на 5 августа 2015 г. 187. “Company,” Twitter, по состоянию на 5 августа 2015 г. 188. “Global New Products Database,” Mintel, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г. 189. “Introducing Gracenote Rhythm,” Gracenote, по состоянию на 1 мая 2015 г. 190. Экстраполяция на основе средней скорости чтения учеников восьмого класса в США (250 слов в минуту). Brett Nelson, “Do You Read Fast Enough to Be Successful?” Forbes, June 4, 2012. 191. “Great Books of the Western World,” Encyclopaedia Britannica Australia, 2015. 192. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Brad Brown, et al., “Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation, Competition, and Productivity,” McKinsey Global Institute, 2011. Это осторожная оценка. Внешний аналитик считает, что можно говорить скорее о двух третях. 193. Экстраполяция на основе доходов от продаж в 2014 году ($88,9 млрд). “Amazon.com Inc. (Financials),” Market Watch, по состоянию на 5 августа 2015 г. 194. Janko Roettgers, “Netflix Spends $150 Million on Content Recommendations Every Year,” Gigaom, October 9, 2014. 195. Eduardo Graells-Garrido, Mounia Lalmas, and Daniele Quercia, “Data Portraits: Connecting People of Opposing Views,” arXiv Preprint, November 19, 2013. 196. Eytan Bakshy, Itamar Rosenn, Cameron Marlow, et al., “The Role of Social Networks in Information Diffusion,” arXiv, January 2012, 1201.4145 [physics]. 197. Aaron Smith, “6 New Facts About Facebook,” Pew Research Center, February 3, 2014. 198. Victor Luckerson, “Here’s How Your Facebook News Feed Actually Works,” Time, July 9, 2015. 199. Вычисления основаны на данных из следующих материалов: “Email Statistics Report, 2014–2018,” Radicati Group, April 2014; “Email Client Market Share,” Litmus, April, 2015. 200. “How Search Works,” Inside Search, Google, 2013. 201. Danny Sullivan, “Google Still Doing at Least 1 Trillion Searches Per Year,” Search Engine Land, January 16, 2015. 202. Danny Sullivan, “Google Still Doing at Least 1 Trillion Searches Per Year,” Search Engine Land, January 16, 2015. 203. Herbert Simon, “Designing Organizations for an Information-Rich World,” in Computers, Communication, and the Public Interest, ed. Martin Greenberger (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971). 204. Dounia Turrill and Glenn Enoch, “The Total Audience Report: Q1 2015,” Nielsen, June 23, 2015. 205. “The Media Monthly,” Peter J. Solomon Company, 2014. 206. Вычисления основаны на следующих материалах: “Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day,” U.S. Census Bureau Newsroom, December 29, 2014; Dounia Turrill and Glenn Enoch, “The Total Audience Report: Q1 2015,” Nielsen, June 23, 2015. 207. Michael Johnston, “What Are Average CPM Rates in 2014?” MonetizePros, July 21, 2014. 208. Calculation based on Gabe Habash, “The Average Book Has 64,500 Words,” Publishers Weekly, March 6, 2012; and Brett Nelson, “Do You Read Fast Enough to Be Successful?” Forbes, June 4, 2012. 209. Из частной переписки с Кемптоном Муни, Nielsen, 16 апреля 2015 г. 210. “How Search Works,” Inside Search, Google, 2013. 211. “How Ads Are Targeted to Your Site,” AdSense Help, по состоянию на 6 августа 2015 г. 212. Jon Mitchell, “What Do Google Ads Know About You?” ReadWrite, November 10, 2011. 213. “2014 Financial Tables,” Google Investor Relations, по состоянию на 7 августа 2015 г. 214. Michael Castillo, “Doritos Reveals 10 ‘Crash the Super Bowl’ Ad Finalists,” Adweek, January 5, 2015. 215. Gabe Rosenberg, “How Doritos Turned User-Generated Content into the Biggest Super Bowl Campaign of the Year,” Content Strategist, Contently, January 12, 2015. 216. Greg Sandoval, “GM Slow to React to Nasty Ads,” CNET, April 3, 2006. 217. Esther Dyson, “Caveat Sender!” Project Syndicate, February 20, 2013. 218. Brad Sugars, “How to Calculate the Lifetime Value of a Customer,” Entrepreneur, August 8, 2012. 219. Morgan Quinn, “The 2015 Oscar Swag Bag Is Worth $168,000 but Comes with a Catch,” Las Vegas Review- Journal, February 22, 2015. 220. Paul Cashin and C. John McDermott, “The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability,” IMF Staff Papers 49, no. 2 (2002). 221. Indur M. Goklany, “Have Increases in Population, Affluence and Technology Worsened Human and Environmental Well-Being?” Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development 1, no. 3 (2009). 222. Liyan Chen, “The Forbes 400 Shopping List: Living the 1 % Life Is More Expensive Than Ever,” Forbes, September 30, 2014. 223. Hiroko Tabuchi, “Stores Suffer from a Shift of Behavior in Buyers,” New York Times, August 13, 2015. 224. Alan B. Krueger, “Land of Hope and Dreams: Rock and Roll, Economics, and Rebuilding the Middle Class,” remarks given at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, White House Council of Economic Advisers, June 12, 2013. 225. “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical Care [CPIMEDSL],” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г. 226. “2014 National Childcare Survey: Babysitting Rates & Nanny Pay,” Urban Sitter, 2014; and Ed Halteman, “2013 INA Salary and Benefits Survey,” International Nanny Association, 2012. 227. Brant Morefield, Michael Plotzke, Anjana Patel, et al., “Hospice Cost Reports: Benchmarks and Trends, 2004– 2011,” Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2011. 228. Paul M. Romer, “Economic Growth,” Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, Library of Economics and Liberty, 2008. 229. W. Brian Arthur, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves (New York: Free Press, 2009). 230. Archive of Our Own, по состоянию на 29 июля 2015 г. 231. Jenna Wortham, “Vine, Twitter’s New Video Tool, Hits 13 Million Users,” Bits blog, New York Times, June 3, 2013. 232. Carmel DeAmicis, “Vine Rings in Its Second Year by Hitting 1.5 Billion Daily Loops,” Gigaom, January 26, 2015. 233. Личные вычисления. Во время создания видео используется очень мало материалов, и 95 процентов издержек приходится на труд и время, в том числе субподрядчиков. Если принять, что средняя зарплата составляет менее $100 в час, на кинофильм стоимостью 100 миллионов долларов приходится как минимум миллион часов работы. 234. “Theatrical Market Statistics 2014,” Motion Picture Association of America, 2015. 235. “ComScore Releases January 2014 U.S. Online Video Rankings,” comScore, February 21, 2014. 236. The top-selling movie, Gone with the Wind, has sold an estimated 202,044,600 tickets. “All Time Box Office,” Box Office Mojo, по состоянию на 7 августа 2015 г. 237. Mary Meeker, “Internet Trends 2014–Code Conference,” Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, 2014. 238. “Sakura-Con 2015 Results (and Info),” Iron Editor, April 7, 2015; and Neda Ulaby, “ ‘Iron Editors’ Test Anime Music- Video Skills,” NPR, August 2, 2007. 239. Michael Rubin, Droidmaker: George Lucas and the Digital Revolution (Gainesville, FL: Triad Publishing, 2005). 240. Mary Meeker, “Internet Trends 2014–Code Conference,” Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, 2014. 241. Lev Manovich, “Database as a Symbolic Form,” Millennium Film Journal 34 (1999); and Cristiano Poian, “Investigating Film Algorithm: Transtextuality in the Age of Database Cinema,” presented at the Cinema and Contemporary Visual Arts II, V Magis Gradisca International Film Studies Spring School, 2015, по состоянию на 19 августа 2015 г. 242. Malcolm B. Parkes, “The Influence of the Concepts of Ordinatio and Compilatio on the Development of the Book,” in Medieval Learning and Literature: Essays Presented to Richard William Hunt, eds. J. J. G. Alexander and M. T. Gibson (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1976), 115–27. 243. Ivan Illich, In the Vineyard of the Text: A Commentary to Hugh’s Didascalicon (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996), 97. 244. Malcolm B. Parkes, “The Influence of the Concepts of Ordinatio and Compilation on the Development of the Book,” in Medieval Learning and Literature: Essays Presented to Richard William Hunt, eds. J.J.G. Alexander and M. T. Gibson (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1976), 115– 27. 245. John Markoff, “Researchers Announce Advance in Image-Recognition Software,” New York Times, November 17, 2014. 246. Vladimir Nabokov, Lectures on Literature (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1980). 247. Thomas Jefferson, “Thomas Jefferson to Isaac McPherson, 13 Aug. 1813,” in Founders’ Constitution, eds. Philip B. Kurland and Ralph Lerner (Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1986). 248. “Music Industry Revenue in the U.S. 2014,” Statista, 2015, по состоянию на 11 августа 2015 г. 249. Margaret Kane, “Google Pauses Library Project,” CNET, October 10, 2005. 250. “Duration of Copyright,” Section 302(a), Circular 92, Copyright Law of the United States of America and Related Laws Contained in Title 17 of the United States Code, U.S. Copyright Office, по состоянию на 11 августа 2015 г. 251. Частная демонстрация ВР, проведенная Джереми Бейлинсоном, директором лаборатории виртуального взаимодействия Стэнфордского университета, июнь 2015 г. 252. Menchie Mendoza, “Google Cardboard vs. Samsung Gear VR: Which Low-Cost VR Headset Is Best for Gaming?” Tech Times, July 21, 2015. 253. Douglas Lanman, “Light Field Displays at AWE2014”, видео, представлено на конференции Augmented World Expo, 2 июня 2014 г. 254. Jessi Hempel, “Project HoloLens: Our Exclusive Hands On with Microsoft’s Holographic Goggles,” Wired, January 21, 2015. 255. Luppicini Rocci, Moral, Ethical, and Social Dilemmas in the Age of Technology: Theories and Practice (Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2013); and Mei Douthitt, “Why Did Second Life Fail? (Mei’s Answer),” Quora, March 18, 2015. 256. Frank Rose, “How Madison Avenue Is Wasting Millions on a Deserted Second Life,” Wired, July 24, 2007. 257. Nicholas Negroponte, “Sensor Deprived,” Wired 2(10), October 1, 1994. 258. Kevin Kelly, “Gossip Is Philosophy,” Wired 3(5), May 1995. 259. Virginial Postre, “Google’s Project Jacquard Gets It Right,” BloombergView, May 31, 2015. 260. Brian Heater, “Northeastern University Squid Shirt Torso On,” Engadget, June 12, 2012. 261. hirley Li, “The Wearable Device That Could Unlock a New Human Sense,” Atlantic, April 14, 2015. 262. Leigh R. Hochberg, Daniel Bacher, Beata Jarosiewicz, et al, “Reach and Grasp by People with Tetraplegia Using a Neurally Controlled Robotic Arm,” Nature 485, no. 7398 (2012): 372–75. 263. Scott Sharkey, “Red Dead Redemption Review,” 1Up.com, May 17, 2010. 264. “Red Dead Redemption,” How Long to Beat, по состоянию на 11 августа 2015 г. 265. “Quantified Self Meetups,” Meetup, по состоянию на 11 августа 2015 г. 266. Nicholas Felton, “2013 Annual Report,” Feltron.com, 2013. 267. Sunny Bains, “Mixed Feelings,” Wired 15(4), 2007. 268. Eric Thomas Freeman, “The Lifestreams Software Architecture” [dissertation], Yale University, May 1997. 269. Nicholas Carreiro, Scott Fertig, Eric Freeman, and David Gelernter, “Lifestreams: Bigger Than Elvis,” Yale University, March 25, 1996. 270. Steve Mann, личная веб-страница, по состоянию на 29 июля 2015 г. 271. “MyLifeBits – Microsoft Research,” Microsoft Research, по состоянию на 29 июля 2015 г. 272. “The Internet of Things Will Drive Wireless Connected Devices to 40.9 Billion in 2020,” ABI Research, August 20, 2014. 273. “Apple’s Profit Soars Thanks to iPod’s Popularity,” Associated Press, April 14, 2005. 274. “Infographic: The Decline of iPod,” Infogram, по состоянию на 3 мая 2015 г. 275. Sean Madden, “Tech That Tracks Your Every Move Can Be Convenient, Not Creepy,” Wired, March 10, 2014. 276. “Connections Counter: The Internet of Everything in Motion,” The Network, Cisco, July 29, 2013. 277. “List of Wikipedias,” Wikimedia Meta-Wiki, по состоянию на 30 апреля 2015 г. 278. Ashlee Vance, “This Tech Bubble Is Different,” Bloomberg Business, April 14, 2014. 279. Вычисления основаны на следующих материалах: Charles Arthur, “Future Tablet Market Will Outstrip PCs – And Reach 900m People, Forrester Says,” Guardian, August 7, 2013; Michael O’Grady, “Forrester Research World Tablet Adoption Forecast, 2013 to 2018 (Global), Q4 2014 Update,” Forrester, December 19, 2014; “Smartphones to Drive Double-Digit Growth of Smart Connected Devices in 2014 and Beyond, According to IDC,” IDC, June 17, 2014. 280. “Connections Counter,” Cisco, 2013. 281. “Gartner Says 4.9 Billion Connected ‘Things’ Will Be in Use in 2015,” Gartner, November 11, 2014. 282. “Gartner Says 4.9 Billion Connected ‘Things’ Will Be in Use in 2015,” Gartner, November 11, 2014. 283. “$4.11: A NARUC Telecommunications Staff Subcommittee Report on Directory Assistance,” National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, 2003, 68. 284. eter Krasilovsky, “Usage Study: 22 % Quit Yellow Pages for Net,” Local Onliner, October 11, 2005. 285. Adrienne Chute, Elaine Kroe, Patricia Garner, et al., “Public Libraries in the United States: Fiscal Year 1999,” NCES 200230, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, 2002. 286. Don Reisinger, “For Google and Search Ad Revenue, It’s a Glass Half Full,” CNET, March 31, 2015. 287. Danny Sullivan, “Internet Top Information Resource, Study Finds,” Search Engine Watch, February 5, 2001. 288. Yan Chen, Grace YoungJoo, and Jeon Yong-Mi Kim, “A Day Without a Search Engine: An Experimental Study of Online and Offline Search,” University of Michigan, 2010. 289. Hal Varian, “The Economic Impact of Google,” видео, представлено на выставке Web 2.0 Expo, Сан- Франциско, 2011. |