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12 технологических трендов. Кевин КеллиНеизбежно. 12технологическихтрендов, которые


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15.
“Statistics,” YouTube, April 2015, https://goo.gl/RVb7oz.
16.
Deborah Fallows, “How Women and Men Use the
Internet: Part 2–Demographics,” Pew Research Center,
December 28, 2005.
17.
Расчеты на основе данных “Internet User
Demographics: Internet Users in 2014,” Pew Research
Center, 2014; и “2013 Population Estimates,” U.S.
Census Bureau, 2015.
18.

Средневзвешенный показатель по интернет- пользователям в 2014 г. на основе данных “Internet
User Demographics,” Pew Research Center, 2014; и
“2014 Population Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2014.
19.
Joshua Quittner, “Billions Registered,” Wired 2(10),
October 1994.
20.
Частный визит в подразделение IBM Research в июне
2014 г.
21.
Из личной переписки с Аланом Грином.
22.
Частный анализ компании Quid, Inc., 2014 г.
23.
Reed Albergotti, “Zuckerberg, Musk Invest in Artificial-
Intelligence Company,” Wall Street Journal, March 21,
2014.
24.
Derrick Harris, “Pinterest, Yahoo, Dropbox and the

(Kind of) Quiet Content-as-Data Revolution,” Gigaom,
January 6, 2014; Derrick Harris “Twitter Acquires Deep
Learning Startup Madbits,” Gigaom, July 29, 2014;
Ingrid Lunden, “Intel Has Acquired Natural Language
Processing Startup Indisys, Price ‘North’ of $26M, to
Build Its AI Muscle,” TechCrunch, September 13, 2013;
and Cooper Smith, “Social Networks Are Investing Big in
Artificial Intelligence,” Business Insider, March 17, 2014.
25.
Частный анализ компании Quid, Inc., 2014 г.
26.
Volodymyr Mnih, Koray Kavukcuoglu, David Silver, et al., “Human-Level Control Through Deep Reinforcement
Learning,” Nature 518, no. 7540 (2015): 529–33.
27.
Rob Berger, “7 Robo Advisors That Make Investing
Effortless,” Forbes, February 5, 2015.
28.
Rick Summer, “By Providing Products That Consumers
Use Across the Internet, Google Can Dominate the Ad
Market,” Morningstar, July 17, 2015.

29.
Danny Sullivan, “Google Still Doing at Least 1 Trillion
Searches Per Year,” Search Engine Land, January 16,
2015.
30.
James Niccolai, “Google Reports Strong Profit, Says
It’s ‘Rethinking Everything’ Around Machine Learning,”
ITworld, October 22, 2015.
31.
“AI Winter,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 24 июля 2015 г.
32.
Frederico A. C. Azevedo, Ludmila R. B. Carvalho, Lea T.
Grinberg, et al., “Equal Numbers of Neuronal and Non-
Neuronal Cells Make the Human Brain an Isometrically
Scaled-up Primate Brain,” Journal of Comparative
Neurology 513, no. 5 (2009): 532–41.
33.
Rajat Raina, Anand Madhavan, and Andrew Y.
Ng, “Large-Scale Deep Unsupervised Learning Using
Graphics Processors,” Proceedings of the 26th Annual
International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML’09
(New York: ACM, 2009), 873–80.

34.
Klint Finley, “Netflix Is Building an Artificial Brain Using
Amazon’s Cloud,” Wired, February 13, 2014.
35.
Из личной переписки с Полом Куинном, факультет психологии и наук о мозге Делавэрского университета, 6 августа 2014 г.
36.
Из личной переписки с Дайленом Янгом (автором приложения Stockfish chess), Штефаном Мейер-
Каленом (разработчиком программы Shredder –
одной из наболее признанных шахматных программ в мире) и Дэнни Копеком (американским шахматистом,
международным мастером и соавтором одной из стандартных компьютерных шахматных систем),
сентябрь 2014 г.
37.
Caleb Garling, “Andrew Ng: Why ‘Deep Learning’ Is a
Mandate for Humans, Not Just Machines,” Wired, May 5,
2015.
38.

Kate Allen, “How a Toronto Professor’s Research
Revolutionized Artificial Intelligence,” Toronto Star, April
17, 2015.
39.
Yann LeCun, Yoshua Bengio, and Geoffrey Hinton, “Deep
Learning,” Nature 521, no. 7553 (2015): 436–44.
40.
Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, Information Rules:
A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy (Boston:
Harvard Business Review Press, 1998).
41.
“Deep Blue,” IBM 100: Icons of Progress, March 7, 2012.
42.
Owen Williams, “Garry Kasparov – Biography,”
KasparovAgent.com, 2010.
43.
Arno Nickel, Freestyle Chess, 2010.
44.
Arno Nickel, “The Freestyle Battle 2014,” Infinity Chess,
2015.

45.
Arno Nickel, “ ‘Intagrand’ Wins the Freestyle Battle 2014,”
Infinity Chess, 2015.
46.
“FIDE Chess Profile (Carlsen, Magnus),” World Chess
Federation, 2015.
47.
Интервью на Facebook, сентябрь 2014 г.
48.
U.S. Census Bureau, “Current Population Reports: Farm
Population,” Persons in Farm Occupations: 1820 to 1987
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office,
1988), 4.
49.
“Employed Persons by Occupation, Sex, and Age,”
Employment & Earnings Online, U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 2015.
50.
Scott Santens, “Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us
Like a Human-Driven Truck,” Huffington Post, May 18,

2015.
51.
Tom Simonite, “Google Creates Software That Tells
You What It Sees in Images,” MIT Technology Review,
November 18, 2014.
52.
Angelo Young, “Industrial Robots Could Be 16 % Less
Costly to Employ Than People by 2025,” International
Business Times, February 11, 2015.
53.
Martin Haegele, Thomas Skordas, Stefan Sagert, et al.,
“Industrial Robot Automation,” White Paper FP6-001917,
European Robotics Research Network, 2005.
54.
Angelo Young, “Industrial Robots Could Be 16 % Less
Costly to Employ Than People by 2025,” International
Business Times, February 11, 2015.
55.
John Markoff, “Planes Without Pilots,” New York Times,
April 6, 2015.

56.
“List of Online Grocers,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 18
августа 2015 г.
57.
Marshall McLuhan, Culture Is Our Business (New York:
McGraw-Hill, 1970).
58.
“List of Most Viewed YouTube Videos,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 18 августа 2015 г.
59.
“Did Radiohead’s ‘In Rainbows’ Honesty Box Actually
Damage the Music Industry?” NME, October 15, 2012.
60.
Eric Whitacre’s Virtual Choir, “Lux Aurumque,” March 21,
2010.
61.
“Information,” Spotify, по состоянию на 18 июня 2015 г.
62.
Romain Dillet, “SoundCloud Now Reaches 250 Million
Visitors in Its Quest to Become the Audio Platform of the

Web,” TechCrunch, October 29, 2013.
63.
Joshua P. Friedlander, “News and Notes on 2014
RIAA Music Industry Shipment and Revenue Statistics,”
Recording Industry Association of America, 2015, http://
goo.gl/Ozgk8f.
64.
“Spotify Explained,” Spotify Artists, 2015.
65.
Joan E. Solsman, “Attention, Artists: Streaming Music Is the Inescapable Future. Embrace It,” CNET, November
14, 2014.
66.
Необходимое количество часов музыки: личные расчеты.
67.
Из личной переписки с Тоддом Принглом, вице- президентом компании Stitcher, 26 апреля 2015 г.
68.
Nicholas Carr, “Words in Stone and on the Wind,” Rough

Type, February 3, 2012.
69.
Robert McCrum, Robert MacNeil, and William Cran, The
Story of English, third revised ed. (New York: Penguin
Books, 2002); and Encyclopedia Americana, vol. 10
(Grolier, 1999).
70.
Pamela Regis, A Natural History of the Romance Novel
(Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2007).
71.
Расчеты на основе примерно 1700 общественных библиотек и 2269 населенных пунктов с населением от 2500 человек. Florence Anderson, Carnegie
Corporation Library Program 1911–1961 (New York:
Carnegie Corporation, 1963); Durand R. Miller, Carnegie
Grants for Library Buildings, 1890–1917 (New York:
Carnegie Corporation, 1943); and “1990 Census of
Population and Housing,” U.S. Census Bureau, CPH21,
1990.
72.
Экстраполяция на основе “Installed Base of Internet-
Connected Video Devices to Exceed Global Population
in 2017,” IHS, October 8, 2013.
73.
2014 Total Global Shipments, IHS Display Search; из личной беседы с Ли Грэм (Lee Graham), 1 мая 2015 г.
74.
“Average SAT Scores of College-ound Seniors,”College
Board, 2015, http://goo.gl/Rbmu0q.
75.
Roger E. Bohn and James E. Short, How Much
Information? 2009 Report on American Consumers,
Global Information Industry Center, University of
California, San Diego, 2009.
76.
“How Search Works,” Inside Search, Google, 2013.
77.
В совокупности два миллиона на WordPress, 78
миллионов на Tumblr: “A Live Look at Activity Across
WordPress.com,” WordPress, April 2015; и “About (Posts
Today),” Tumblr, по состоянию на 5 августа 2015 г.
78.

“About (Tweets Sent Per Day),” Twitter, August 5, 2015.
79.
Sven Birkerts, “Reading in a Digital Age,” American
Scholar, March 1, 2010.
80.
Stanislas Dehaene, Reading in the Brain: The Science and Evolution of a Human Invention (New York: Viking,
2009).
81.
“Rapid Serial Visual Presentation,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 24 июня 2015 г.
82.
Helen Ku, “E-Ink Forecasts Loss as Ebook Device
Demand Falls,” Taipei Times, March 29, 2014.
83.
Stefan Marti, “TinyProjector,” MIT Media Lab, October
2000–May 2002.
84.
“List of Wikipedias,” Wikimedia Meta-Wiki, по состоянию на 30 апреля 2015 г.

85.
Lionel Casson, Libraries in the Ancient World (New
Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2001); Andrew
Erskine, “Culture and Power in Ptolemaic Egypt: The
Library and Museum at Alexandria,” Greece and Rome
42 (1995).
86.
Из личной переписки с Брюстером Кейлом, 2006 г.
87.
“WorldCat Local,” WorldCat, по состоянию на 18
авгутса 2015 г.
88.
“WorldCat Local,” WorldCat, по состоянию на 18
авгутса 2015 г.
89.
“Introducing Gracenote Rhythm,” Gracenote, по состоянию на 1 мая 2015 г.
90.
“How Many Photos Have Ever Been Taken?” 1,000
Memories blog, April 10, 2012, через Internet Archive, по
состоянию на 2 мая 2015 г.
91.
“Database Statistics,” IMDb, May 2015.
92.
Inferred from “Statistics,” YouTube, по состоянию на 18
августа 2015 г.
93.
“How Search Works,” Inside Search, Google, 2013.
94.
Из личной переписки с Брюстером Кейлом, 2006 г.
95.
Naomi Korn, In from the Cold: An Assessment of the
Scope of ‘Orphan Works’ and Its Impact on the Delivery of Services to the Public, JISC Content, Collections Trust,
Cambridge, UK, April 2009.
96.
“Muriel Rukeyser, The Speed of Darkness: Poems (New
York: Random House, 1968).
97.

Phillip Moore, “Eye Tracking: Where It’s Been and Where
It’s Going,” User Testing, June 4, 2015.
98.
Mariusz Szwoch and Wioleta Szwoch, “Emotion
Recognition for Affect Aware Video Games,” in Image
Processing & Communications Challenges 6, ed.
Ryszard S. Choraś, Advances in Intelligent Systems and
Computing 313, Springer International, 2015, 227–36.
99.
Jessi Hempel, “Project Hololens: Our Exclusive Hands-
On with Microsoft’s Holographic Goggles,” Wired,
January 21, 2015; and Sean Hollister, “How Magic Leap
Is Secretly Creating a New Alternate Reality,” Gizmodo,
November 9, 2014.
100.
Tom Goodwin, “The Battle Is for the Customer Interface,”
TechCrunch, March 3, 2015.
101.
“Kindle Unlimited,” Amazon, по состоянию на 24 июня
2015 г.
102.

Chaz Miller, “Steel Cans,” Waste 360, March 1, 2008.
103.
“Study Finds Aluminum Cans the Sustainable Package of
Choice,” Can Manufacturers Institute, May 20, 2015.
104.
Ronald Bailey, “Dematerializing the Economy,”
Reason.com, September 5, 2001.
105.
Sylvia Gierlinger and Fridolin Krausmann, “The Physical
Economy of the United States of America,” Journal of
Industrial Ecology 16, no. 3 (2012): 365–77, Figure 4a.
106.
Данные с учетом инфляции. Ronald Bailey,
“Dematerializing the Economy,” Reason.com, September
5, 2001.
107.
Marc Andreessen, “Why Software Is Eating the World,”
Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2011.
108.
Alvin Toffler, The Third Wave (New York: Bantam, 1984).

109.
“Subscription Products Boost Adobe Fiscal 2Q Results,”
Associated Press, June 16, 2015.
110.
Jessica Pressler, “ ‘Let’s, Like, Demolish Laundry,’ ” New
York, May 21, 2014.
111.
Jennifer Jolly, “An Uber for Doctor House Calls,” New
York Times, May 5, 2015.
112.
Emily Hamlin Smith, “Where to Rent Designer Handbags,
Clothes, Accessories and More,” Cleveland Plain Dealer,
September 12, 2012.
113.
Murithi Mutiga, “Kenya’s Banking Revolution Lights a
Fire,” New York Times, January 20, 2014.
114.
“Bitcoin Network,” Bitcoin Charts, по состоянию на 24
июня 2015 г.

115.
Wouter Vonk, “Bitcoin and BitPay in 2014,” BitPay blog,
February 4, 2015.
116.
Colin Dean, “How Many Bitcoin Are Mined Per Day?”
Bitcoin Stack Exchange, March 28, 2013.
117.
Hal Hodson, “Google Wants to Rank Websites Based on
Facts Not Links,” New Scientist, February 28, 2015.
118.
Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media: The
Extensions of Man (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964).
119.
Brandon Butler, “Which Cloud Providers Had the Best
Uptime Last Year?” Network World, January 12, 2015.
120.
Noam Cohen, “Hong Kong Protests Propel FireChat
Phone-to-Phone App,” New York Times, October 5, 2014.
121.
Michael Kanellos, “Gates Taking a Seat in Your Den,”

CNET, January 5, 2005.
122.
Ward Cunningham, “Wiki History,” March 25, 1995, http://
goo.gl/2qAjTO.
123.
“Wiki Engines,” по состоянию на 24 июня 2015 г., http://
goo.gl/5auMv6.
124.
“State of the Commons,” Creative Commons, по состоянию на 2 мая 2015 г.
125.
Theta Pavis, “The Rise of Dot-Communism,” Wired,
October 25, 1999.
126.
Roshni Jayakar, “Interview: John Perry Barlow, Founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation,” Business Today,
December 6, 2000, по состоянию на 30 июля 2015 г.,
доступ через Internet Archive по состоянию на 24
апреля 2006 г.
127.

Clay Shirky, Here Comes Everybody: The Power of
Organizing Without Organizations (New York: Penguin
Press, 2008).
128.
Mary Meeker, “Internet Trends 2014–Code Conference,”
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, 2014.
129.
“Statistics,” YouTube, по состоянию на 24 июня 2015 г.
130.
Piotr Kowalczyk, “15 Most Popular Fanfiction Websites,”
Ebook Friendly, January 13, 2015.
131.
“From Each According to His Ability, to Each According to
His Need,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на 24 июня 2015 г.
132.
1“July 2015 Web Server Survey,” Netcraft, July 22, 2015.
133.
Jean S. Bozman and Randy Perry, “Server Transition
Alternatives: A Business Value View Focusing on
Operating Costs,” White Paper 231528R1, IDC, 2012.

134.
“July 2015 Web Server Survey,” Netcraft, July 22, 2015.
135.
“Materialise Previews Upcoming Printables Feature for
Trimble’s 3D Warehouse,” Materialise, April 24, 2015.
136.
“Arduino FAQ – With David Cuartielles,” Medea, April 5,
2013.
137.
“About 6 Million Raspberry Pis Have Been Sold,” Adafruit,
June 8, 2015.
138.
Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social
Production Transforms Markets and Freedom (New
Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006).
139.
“Account Holders,” Black Duck Open Hub, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г.
140.

“Projects,” Black Duck Open Hub, по состоянию на 25
июня 2015 г.
141.
“Annual Report 2014,” General Motors, 2015, http://
goo.gl/DhXIxp.
142.
“Current Apache HTTP Server Project Members,”
Apache HTTP Server Project, по состоянию на 25 июня
2015 г.
143.
Amanda McPherson, Brian Proffitt, and Ron Hale-Evans,
“Estimating the Total Development Cost of a Linux
Distribution,” Linux Foundation, 2008.
144.
“About Reddit,” Reddit, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г.
145.
“Statistics,” YouTube, по состоянию на 25 июня 2015 г.
146.
“Wikipedia: Wikipedians,” Wikipedia, по состоянию на
25 июня 2015 г.

147.
“Stats,” Instagram, по состоянию на 2 мая 2015 г.
148.
“Facebook Just Released Their Monthly Stats and the
Numbers Are Staggering,” TwistedSifter, April 23, 2015.
149.
“Facebook Just Released Their Monthly Stats and the
Numbers Are Staggering,” TwistedSifter, April 23, 2015.
150.
Rishab Aiyer Ghosh, Ruediger Glott, Bernhard Krieger, et al., “Free/Libre and Open Source Software: Survey and
Study,” International Institute of Infonomics, University of
Maastricht, Netherlands, 2002, Figure 35: “Reasons to
Join and to Stay in OS/FS Community.”
151.
Gabriella Coleman, “The Political Agnosticism of Free and Open Source Software and the Inadvertent Politics of Contrast,” Anthropological Quarterly 77, no. 3 (2004):
507–19.
152.

Gary Wolf, “Why Craigslist Is Such a Mess,” Wired 17(9),
August 24, 2009.
153.
Larry Keeley, “Ten Commandments for Success on the
Net,” Fast Company, June 30, 1996.
154.
Clay Shirky, Here Comes Everybody: The Power of
Organizing Without Organizations (New York: Penguin
Press, 2008).
155.
John Perry Barlow, “Declaring Independence,” Wired
4(6), June 1996.
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