21 урок для 21 века. Урок для xxi века yuval Noah Harari 21 lessons for the 21st century copyright 2018 by Yuval Noah Harari
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1. Крушение иллюзий 1 См., например, инаугурационную речь Джорджа Буша — младше- го в 2005 году, в которой он сказал: «Исходя из последних собы- тий и руководствуясь здравым смыслом, мы пришли к заключе- нию: сохранение свободы в нашей стране в значительной степени зависит от успеха свободы в других странах. Самую большую на- дежду на мир дает распространение свободы по всей планете». ‘Bush Pledges to Spread Democracy’, CNN, 20 January 2005, http://edition.cnn. com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/20/bush.speech/, accessed 7 January 2018. Что касается Обамы, см., например, его последнюю речь в ООН: Katie Reilly, ‘Read Barack Obama’s Final Speech to the United Nations as President’, Time, 20 September 2016, http://time.com/4501910/president- obama-united-nations-speech-transcript/, accessed 3 December 2017. 2 William Neikirk and David S. Cloud, ‘Clinton: Abuses Put China “On Wrong Side of History”, Chicago Tribune, 30 October 1997, http:// articles.chicagotribune.com/1997-10-30/news/9710300304_1_human- rights-jiang-zemin-chinese-leader, accessed 3 December 2017. 3 Eric Bradner, ‘Hillary Clinton’s Email Controversy, Explained’, CNN, 28 October 2016, http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/03/politics/hillary- clinton-email-controversy-explained-2016/index.html, accessed 3 December 2017. 4 Chris Graham and Robert Midgley, ‘Mexico Border Wall: What is Donald Trump Planning, How Much Will It Cost and Who Will Pay for It?’, ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ 381 ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ Telegraph, 23 August 2017, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/mexico- border-wall-donald-trump-planning-much-will-cost-will/, accessed 3 December 2017; Michael Schuman, ‘Is China Stealing Jobs? It May Be Losing Them, Instead’, New York Times, 22 July 2016, https://www. nytimes.com/2016/07/23/business/international/china-jobs-donald- trump.html, accessed 3 December 2017. 5 Несколько примеров из XIX и начала XX века см. в Evgeny Dobrenko and Eric Naiman (eds.), The Landscape of Stalinism: The Art and Ideology of Soviet Space (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2003); W. L. Guttsman, Art for the Workers: Ideology and the Visual Arts in Weimar Germany (New York: Manchester University Press, 1997). Об- щую дискуссию см., например, в Nicholas John Cull, Propaganda and Mass Persuasion: A Historical Encyclopedia, 1500 to the Present (Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO, 2003). 6 Эту интерпретацию см.: Ishaan Tharoor, ‘Brexit: A modern-day Peasants’ Revolt?’, Washington Post, 25 June 2016, https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/25/the-brexit-a- modern-day-peasants-revolt/?utm_term=.9b8e81bd5306; John Curtice, ‘US election 2016: The Trump—Brexit voter revolt’, BBC, 11 November 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016—37943072. 7 Самой известной работой, конечно, остается Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (London: Penguin, 1992). 8 Ayelet Shani, ‘The Israelis Who Take Rebuilding the Third Temple Very Seriously’, Haaretz, 10 August 2017, https://www.haaretz.com/israel- news/.premium-1.805977, accessed January 2018; ‘Israeli Minister: We Should Rebuild Jerusalem Temple’, Israel Today, 7 July 2013, http:// www.israeltoday.co.il/Default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=23964, accessed 7 January 2018; Yuri Yanover, ‘Dep. Minister Hotovely: The Solution Is Greater Israel without Gaza’, Jewish Press, 25 August 2013, http:// www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/dep-minister-hotovely- the-solution-is-greater-israel-without-gaza/2013/08/25/, accessed 7 January 2018; ‘Israeli Minister: The Bible Says West Bank Is Ours’, Al Jazeera, 24 February 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/ upfront/2017/02/israeli-minister-bible-west-bank-170224082827910. html, accessed 29 January 2018. 9 Katie Reilly, ‘Read Barack Obama’s Final Speech to the United Nations as President’, Time, 20 September 2016, http://time.com/4501910/president- obama-united-nations-speech-transcript/, accessed 3 December 2017. 382 21 УРОК ДЛЯ XXI ВЕКА 2. Работа 1 Gregory R. Woirol, The Technological Unemployment and Structural Unemployment Debates (Westport: Greenwood Press, 1996), 18–20; Amy Sue Bix, Inventing Ourselves out of Jobs? America’s Debate over Technological Unemployment, 1929–1981 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000), 1–8; Joel Mokyr, Chris Vickers and Nicolas L. Ziebarth, ‘The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29:3 (2015), 33–42; Joe Mokyr, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002), 255–257; David H. Autor, ‘Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and the Future of Workplace Automation’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29:3 (2015), 3–30; Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn, ‘The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries’, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 89 (2016); Mariacristina Piva and Marco Vivarelli, ‘Technological Change and Employment: Were Ricardo and Marx Right?’, IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Discussion Paper No.10471 (2017). 2 См., например, как ИИ побеждает людей в авиационных симуля- торах, и особенно в воздушном бое: Nicholas Ernest et al., ‘Genetic Fuzzy based Artificial Intelligence for Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle Control in Simulated Air Combat Missions’, Journal of Defense Management 6:1 (2016), 1–7; интеллектуальные обучающие системы: Kurt VanLehn, ‘The Relative Effectiveness of Human Tutoring, Intelligent Tutoring Systems, and Other Tutoring Systems’, Educational Psychologist 46:4 (2011), 197–221; алгоритмический трейдинг: Giuseppe Nuti et al., ‘Algorithmic Trading’, Computer 44:11 (2011), 61–69; финансо- вое планирование, управление портфелем ценных бумаг и т. д.: Arash Baharammirzaee, ‘A comparative Survey of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Finance: Artificial Neural Networks, Expert System and Hybrid Intelligent Systems’, Neural Computing and Applications 19:8 (2010), 1165–1195; анализ сложных данных в медицинских сис- темах, постановка диагноза и назначение лечения: Marjorie Glass Zauderer et al., ‘Piloting IBM Watson Oncology within Memorial Sloan Kettering’s Regional Network’, Journal of Clinical Oncology 32:15 (2014), e17653; создание оригинальных текстов на естествен- ном языке из большого объема данных: Jean-Sébastien Vayre et al., ‘Communication Mediated through Natural Language Generation in Big Data Environments: The Case of Nomao’, Journal of Computer and 383 ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ Communication 5 (2017), 125–148; распознавание лиц: Florian Schroff, Dmitry Kalenichenko and James Philbin, ‘FaceNet: A Unified Embedding for Face Recognition and Clustering’, IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) (2015), 815–823; управление автомобилем: Cristiano Premebida, ‘A Lidar and Vision-based Approach for Pedestrian and Vehicle Detection and Tracking’, 2007 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference (2007). 3 Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011); Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational (New York: Harper, 2009); Brian D. Ripley, Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007); Christopher M. Bishop, Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning (New York: Springer, 2007). 4 Seyed Azimi et al., ‘Vehicular Networks for Collision Avoidance at Intersections,’ SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars — Mechanical Systems 4 (2011), 406–416; Swarun Kumar et al., ‘CarSpeak: A Content- Centric Network for Autonomous Driving’, SIGCOM Computer Communication Review 42(2012), 259–270; Mihail L. Sichitiu and Maria Kihl, ‘Inter-Vehicle Communication Systems: A Survey’, IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials (2008), 10; Mario Gerla, Eun-Kyu Lee and Giovanni Pau, ‘Internet of Vehicles: From Intelligent Grid to Autonomous Cars and Vehicular Clouds’, 2014 IEEE World Forum on Internet of Things (WF-IoT) (2014), 241–246. 5 David D. Luxton et al., ‘mHealth for Mental Health: Integrating Smartphone Technology in Behavioural Healthcare’, Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 42:6 (2011), 505–512; Abu Saleh Mohammad Mosa, Illhoi Yoo and Lincoln Sheets, ‘A Systematic Review of Healthcare Application for Smartphones’, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 12:1 (2012), 67; Karl Frederick Braekkan Payne, Heather Wharrad and Kim Watts, ‘Smartphone and Medical Related App Use among Medical Students and Junior Doctors in the United Kingdom (UK): A Regional Survey’, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 12:1 (2012), 121; Sandeep Kumar Vashist, E. Marion Schneider and John H. T. Loung, ‘Commercial Smartphone-Based Devices and Smart Applications for Personalised Healthcare Monitoring and Management’, Diagnostics 4:3 (2014), 104–128; Maged N. Kamel Bouls et al., ‘How Smartphones Are Changing the Face of Mobile and Participatory Healthcare: An Overview, with Example from eCAALYX’, BioMedical Engineering OnLine 10:24 (2011), https://doi. org/10.1186/1475-925X-10-24, accessed 30 July 2017; Paul J. F. White, Blake W. Podaima and Marcia R. Friesen, ‘Algorithms for Smartphone 384 21 УРОК ДЛЯ XXI ВЕКА and Tablet Image Analysis for Healthcare Applications’, IEEE Access 2 (2014), 831–840. 6 World Health Organization, Global status report on road safety 2015 (2016); ‘Estimates for 2000—2015, Cause-Specific Mortality’, http://www. who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates/en/index1.html, accessed 6 September 2017. 7 Анализ причин автомобильных аварий в США см.: Daniel J. Fagnant and Kara Kockelman, ‘Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations’, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 77 (2015), 167–181; анализ дан- ных по всему миру см., например: OECD/ITF, Road Safety Annual Report 2016 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/ irtad-2016-en. 8 Kristofer D. Kusano and Hampton C. Gabler, ‘Safety Benefits of Forward Collision Warning, Brake Assist, and Autonomous Braking Systems in Rear-End Collisions’, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 13:4 (2012), 1546–1555; James M. Anderson et al., Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2014), esp. 13–15; Daniel J. Fagnant and Kara Kockelman, ‘Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations’, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 77 (2015), 167–181; Jean-Francois Bonnefon, Azim Shariff and Iyad Rahwan, ‘Autonomous Vehicles Need Experimental Ethics: Are We Ready for Utilitarian Cars?’, arXiv (2015), 1–15. О предложениях по созданию межтранспортных сетей для предотвращения аварий см.: Seyed R. Azimi et al., ‘Vehicular Networks for Collision Avoidance at Intersections’, SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars — Mechanical Systems 4:1 (2011), 406–416; Swarun Kumar et al., ‘CarSpeak: A Content- Centric Network for Autonomous Driving’, SIGCOM Computer Communication Review 42:4 (2012), 259–270; Mihail L. Sichitiu and Maria Kihl, ‘Inter-Vehicle Communication Systems: A Survey’, IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials 10:2 (2008); Mario Gerla et al., ‘Internet of Vehicles: From Intelligent Grid to Autonomous Cars and Vehicular Clouds’, 2014 IEEE World Forum on Internet of Things (WF- IoT) (2014), 241–246. 9 Michael Chui, James Manyika and Mehdi Miremadi, ‘Where Machines Could Replace Humans — and Where They Can’t (Yet)’, McKinsey Quarterly (2016), http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital- mckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and- where-they-cant-yet, accessed 1 March 2018. 385 ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ 10 Wu Youyou, Michal Kosinski and David Stillwell, ‘Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans’, PANS, vol. 112 (2014), 1036–1038. 11 Stuart Dredge, ‘AI and music: will we be slaves to the algorithm?’ Guardian, 6 August 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/ aug/06/artificial-intelligence-and-will-we-be-slaves-to-the-algorithm, accessed 15 October 2017. Обзорный анализ методов см.: Jose David Fernández and Francisco Vico, ‘AI Methods in Algorithmic Composition: A Comprehensive Survey’, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 48 (2013), 513–582. 12 Eric Topol, The Patient Will See You Now: The Future of Medicine is in Your Hands (New York: Basic Books, 2015); Robert Wachter, The Digital Doctor: Hope, Hype and Harm at the Dawn of Medicine’s Computer Age (New York: McGraw-Hill Education, 2015); Simon Parkin, ‘The Artificially Intelligent Doctor Will Hear You Now’, MIT Technology Review (2016), https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600868/the- artificially-intelligent-doctor-will-hear-you-now/; James Gallagher, ‘Artificial intelligence “as good as cancer doctors”, BBC, 26 January 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/health-38717928. 13 Kate Brannen, ‘Air Force’s lack of drone pilots reaching “crisis” levels’, Foreign Policy, 15 January 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/15/ air-forces-lack-of-drone-pilots-reaching-crisis-levels/. 14 Tyler Cowen, Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation (New York: Dutton, 2013); Brad Bush, ‘How combined human and computer intelligence will redefine jobs’, TechCrunch (2016), https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/01/ how-combined-human-and-computer-intelligence-will-redefine-jobs/. 15 Ulrich Raulff, Farewell to the Horse: The Final Century of Our Relationship (London: Allen Lane, 2017); Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008), 286; Margo DeMello, Animals and Society: An Introduction to Human-Animal Studies (New York: Columbia University Press, 2012), 197; Clay McShane and Joel Tarr, ‘The Decline of the Urban Horse in American Cities’, Journal of Transport History 24:2 (2003), 177–198. 16 Lawrence F. Katz and Alan B. Krueger, ‘The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995—2015’, National Bureau of Economic Research (2016); Peter H. Cappelli and J. R. Keller, ‘A Study of the Extent and Potential Causes of Alternative Employment Arrangements’, ILR Review 66:4 (2013), 874—901; Gretchen M. Spreitzer, 386 21 УРОК ДЛЯ XXI ВЕКА Lindsey Cameron and Lyndon Garrett, ‘Alternative Work Arrangements: Two Images of the New World of Work’, Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior 4 (2017), 473–499; Sarah A. Donovan, David H. Bradley and Jon O. Shimabukuru, ‘What Does the Gig Economy Mean for Workers?’, Washington DC: Congressional Research Service (2016), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44365.pdf, accessed 11 February 2018; ‘More Workers Are in Alternative Employment Arrangements’, Pew Research Center, 28 September 2016, http://www. pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/st_2016-10- 06_jobs-26/, accessed 11 February 2018. 17 David Ferrucci et al.,‘Watson: Beyond Jeopardy!’, Artificial Intelligence 19–200 (2013), 93–105. 18 ‘Google’s AlphaZero Destroys Stockfish in 100-Game Match’, Chess. com, 6 December 2017, https://www.chess.com/news/view/google-s- alphazero-destroys-stockfish-in-100-game-match, accessed 11 February 2018; David Silver et al., ‘Mastering Chess and Shogi by Self-Play with a General Reinforcement Learning Algorithm’, arXiv (2017), https:// arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01815.pdf, accessed 2 February 2018; see also Sarah Knapton, ‘Entire Human Chess Knowledge Learned and Surpassed by DeepMind’s AlphaZero in Four Hours’, Telegraph, 6 December 2017, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/12/06/entire-human- chess-knowledge-learned-surpassed-deepminds-alphazero/, accessed 11 February 2018. 19 Cowen, Average is Over, op. cit.; Tyler Cowen, ‘What are humans still good for? The turning point in freestyle chess may be approaching’ (2013), http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/what- are-humans-still-good-for-the-turning-point-in-freestyle-chess-may- be-approaching.html. 20 Maddalaine Ansell, ‘Jobs for Life Are a Thing of the Past. Bring On Lifelong Learning’, Guardian, 31 May 2016, https://www. theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2016/may/31/ jobs-for-life-are-a-thing-of-the-past-bring-on-lifelong-learning. 21 Alex Williams, ‘Prozac Nation Is Now the United States of Xanax’, New York Times, 10 June 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/10/style/ anxiety-is-the-new-depression-xanax.html. 22 Simon Rippon, ‘Imposing Options on People in Poverty: The Harm of a Live Donor Organ Market’, Journal of Medical Ethics 40 (2014), 145–150; I. Glenn Cohen, ‘Regulating the Organ Market: Normative Foundations for Market Regulation’, Law and Contemporary Problems 77 (2014); Alexandra K. Glazier, ‘The Principles of Gift Law and the Regulation of 387 ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ Organ Donation’, Transplant International 24 (2011), 368–372; Megan McAndrews and Walter E. Block, ‘Legalizing Saving Lives: A Proposition for the Organ Market’, Insights to A Changing World Journal 2015, 1–17. 23 James J. Hughes, ‘A Strategic Opening for a Basic Income Guarantee in the Global Crisis Being Created by AI, Robots, Desktop Manufacturing and BioMedicine’, Journal of Evolution & Technology 24 (2014), 45–61; Alan Cottey, ‘Technologies, Culture, Work, Basic Income and Maximum Income’, AI & Society 29 (2014), 249–257. 24 Jon Henley, ‘Finland Trials Basic Income for Unemployed,’ Guardian, 3 January 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/03/ finland-trials-basic-income-for-unemployed, accessed 1 March 2018. 25 ‘Swiss Voters Reject Proposal to Give Basic Income to Every Adult and Child’, Guardian, 5 June 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/ world/2016/jun/05/swiss-vote-give-basic-income-every-adult- child-marxist-dream. 26 Isabel Hunter, ‘Crammed into squalid factories to produce clothes for the West on just 20p a day, the children forced to work in horrific unregulated workshops of Bangladesh’, Daily Mail, 1 December 2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3339578/Crammed-squalid- factories-produce-clothes-West-just-20p-day-children-forced-work- horrific-unregulated-workshops-Bangladesh.html, accessed 15 October 2017; Chris Walker and Morgan Hartley, ‘The Culture Shock of India’s Call Centers’, Forbes, 16 December 2012, https://www.forbes.com/ sites/morganhartley/2012/12/16/the-culture-shock-of-indias-call- centres/#17bb61d372f5, accessed 15 October 2017. 27 Klaus Schwab and Nicholas Davis, Shaping the Fourth Industrial Revolution (World Economic Forum, 2018), 54. On long-term development strategies, see Ha-Joon Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective (London: Anthem Press, 2003). 28 Lauren Gambini, ‘Trump Pans Immigration Proposal as Bringing People from “Shithole Countries”’, Guardian, 12 January 2018, https:// www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/11/trump-pans-immigration- proposal-as-bringing-people-from-shithole-countries, accessed 11 February 2018. 29 Мысль о том, что абсолютное улучшение условий может сочетаться с относительным усилением неравенства, см., в частности, в Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2013). 30 ‘2017 Statistical Report on Ultra-Orthodox Society in Israel’, Israel Democracy Institute and Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies (2017), 388 21 УРОК ДЛЯ XXI ВЕКА https://en.idi.org.il/articles/20439, accessed 1 January 2018; Melanie Lidman, ‘As ultra-Orthodox women bring home the bacon, don’t say the F-word’, Times of Israel, 1 January 2016, https://www.timesofisrael. com/as-ultra-orthodox-women-bring-home-the-bacon-dont-say-the-f- word/, accessed 15 October 2017. 31 Melanie Lidman, ‘As ultra-Orthodox women bring home the bacon, don’t say the F-word’, Times of Israel, 1 January 2016, https://www.timesofisrael. com/as-ultra-Orthodox-women-bring-home-the-bacon-dont-say-the-f- word/, accessed 15 October 2017; ‘Statistical Report on Ultra-Orthodox Society in Israel’, Israel Democracy Institute and Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies 18 (2016), https://en.idi.org.il/media/4240/shnaton- e_8-9-16_web.pdf, accessed 15 October 2017. Что касается счастья, не так давно Израиль занял 11-е место по уровню удовлетворен- ности жизнью среди 38 стран ОЭСР: ‘Life Satisfaction’, OECD Better Life Index, http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/topics/life-satisfaction/, accessed 15 October 2017. 32 ‘2017 Statistical Report on Ultra-Orthodox Society in Israel’, Israel Democracy Institute and Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies (2017), https://en.idi.org.il/articles/20439, accessed 1 January 2018. |